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Published: 31 July 2026,06:10
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*The US dollar weakened after softer US GDP and Core PCE data reduced expectations of a near-term Fed rate hike.
*Gold remained supported above US$4,100, benefiting from a weaker dollar, easing Fed expectations, and continued central bank buying.
*Middle East tensions boosted safe-haven demand for gold while keeping inflation risks elevated through higher energy prices.
The US dollar remained under pressure while gold extended its gains after weaker-than-expected US economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may not rush to tighten monetary policy further. Second-quarter US GDP expanded by just 1.5%, missing expectations of 2.1%, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, rose only 0.1% month-on-month in June, signalling moderating inflation despite remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. Although the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% and Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation, markets trimmed expectations for a September rate hike, weighing on the US dollar while supporting non-yielding assets such as gold.
Adding further pressure on the greenback was a sharp appreciation in the Japanese yen, widely attributed to suspected intervention by Japanese authorities ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. USD/JPY tumbled more than 2–3%, dragging the US Dollar Index (DXY) below the key 100.00 level and recording its largest one-day decline since early 2023. The weaker dollar boosted demand for dollar-denominated bullion, helping gold remain supported around the US$4,100 level despite elevated Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported that strong central bank purchases during the second quarter offset weaker investment demand, keeping gold on track for its first monthly gain in five months.
Safe-haven demand also continued to underpin gold as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained elevated. Fresh US military strikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets, continued missile exchanges, a drone attack near Egypt’s Damietta Port, and Iran’s rejection of Oman’s proposal for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz renewed concerns over regional stability and potential disruptions to global energy supplies. While these developments supported gold as a defensive asset, they also raised the prospect of higher oil prices fuelling inflationary pressures, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and limiting further downside for the US dollar. Investors will now closely monitor the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, any official confirmation of Japanese currency intervention, and upcoming US economic data for further direction in both the US dollar and gold.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold is attempting to stabilize after a recent pullback, with price rebounding from the $3,975 support area and moving back toward the $4,100 resistance level. The broader structure remains relatively constructive as price continues to hold above the major $3,935 support, but the recovery is still developing and has yet to establish a clear bullish breakout. The recent consolidation appears to be forming a short-term triangle pattern, with price now testing the upper boundary.
Momentum indicators are showing signs of improvement. RSI has rebounded to around 57 and moved above its moving average, suggesting that buying pressure is gradually returning without yet reaching overbought territory. Meanwhile, MACD is attempting a bullish crossover, with the histogram turning positive and indicating that bearish momentum is fading. However, the MACD lines remain close to the neutral area, suggesting that the bullish recovery still requires further confirmation. Overall, Gold is showing early signs of a potential bullish recovery, but price remains below the key $4,100 resistance and the broader descending trendline.
Resistance Levels: 4100.00, 4220.00
Support Levels: 3975.00, 3935.00
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