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Published: 11 August 2026,08:58
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Brent crude has climbed back toward $85 per barrel as hopes for a quick resolution to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to fade.
*Ongoing regional tensions, including reported attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, have reinforced fears of prolonged supply disruptions and added a significant risk premium to crude oil prices.
*The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) remains near multi-decade lows after emergency releases. Future replenishment efforts could provide additional support for oil prices.
Crude oil prices have surged in recent sessions, with Brent climbing back toward the $85 per barrel level, as optimism over a swift resolution to Middle East supply disruptions faded. The primary driver remains the unresolved situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that normally handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Despite earlier diplomatic efforts involving Iran and Oman aimed at establishing new shipping lanes, Tehran has maintained that the waterway will not fully reopen until a series of conditions are met, including sanctions relief and other concessions from the United States. Vessel traffic through the strait remains sharply constrained, with only a fraction of normal daily transits occurring, sustaining a significant geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
Additional pressure has come from continued regional instability, including reported attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi forces on Saudi energy infrastructure. These developments have reinforced market concerns that supply constraints could persist longer than previously hoped, limiting the ability of Gulf producers to fully restore export volumes. As a result, both Brent and West Texas Intermediate have extended gains after last week’s decline, which had been driven by more optimistic assessments of potential progress toward reopening the strait.
Separately, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has declined to multi-decade lows, falling below 300 million barrels following successive emergency releases undertaken to mitigate the impact of the Middle East supply shock. While current inventories stand at their lowest levels since the early 1980s, plans for eventual replenishment through exchange returns and future purchases are expected to generate additional crude demand once the refill process accelerates. This prospective buying from the SPR, alongside potential restocking by other nations, could provide further underlying support for oil prices in the medium term.
Overall, the combination of prolonged restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz and the eventual need to rebuild strategic inventories points to a market still carrying elevated supply risks. Near-term price direction will hinge heavily on any tangible progress—or further setbacks—in diplomatic efforts to restore normal shipping flows through the critical waterway.
Technical Analysis
Brent crude oil has broken above its descending channel after finding strong support near the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level around $80.60, signaling a potential bullish trend reversal for the commodity.
The successful defense of the $80.60 support zone suggests that buyers have regained control following the previous correction phase. The breakout above the downtrend channel further strengthens the positive technical outlook, indicating that the bearish structure that had previously dominated price action may have come to an end.
Momentum indicators are also supporting the bullish scenario. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on the verge of entering the overbought territory, reflecting strengthening buying momentum, while the MACD has crossed above the zero line, a classic signal that bullish momentum is building and that market sentiment is shifting in favor of the bulls.
With both price action and momentum indicators aligning positively, Brent crude appears well-positioned to extend its recovery. Should the current bullish momentum persist, the next major upside target lies near the previous peak at $96.90, where the market may encounter stronger resistance.
Resistance Levels: 92.05, 100.00
Support Levels: 85.20, 78.20
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