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Published: 17 August 2026,09:01
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*USD weakens as soft US data cuts September Fed-hike expectations.
*Gold stays bullish near $4,400, supported by a weaker dollar and strong central-bank demand.
*Oil remains the key risk, with higher energy prices potentially reviving inflation concerns.
The U.S. dollar has started the week under renewed pressure, with the DXY around 99.50 and close to two-month lows, as markets continue to unwind expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike. The main catalyst is the deterioration in recent U.S. economic data, with July retail sales unexpectedly falling 0.6%, the first monthly decline in nine months, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 51.0 from 55.2. Combined with softer CPI and PPI readings and weaker July employment data, the outlook for Fed policy has become more dovish, with markets now pricing only around a 30% probability of a September rate hike, down from roughly 47–50% previously. U.S. Treasury yields have also eased, with the two-year yield around 4.15% and the 10-year yield near 4.68%, further weighing on the dollar. The weakness has been broad-based, with EUR/USD above 1.1580, AUD/USD around 0.7105 and GBP/USD testing 1.3550–1.3560, reflecting renewed short-dollar positioning as traders increasingly expect the Fed to remain on hold.
This softer dollar and lower-rate environment has provided a strong tailwind for gold, which is trading around $4,390–$4,400 per ounce after gaining almost 1% last week and reaching its highest level in more than two months. Weaker retail sales, consumer sentiment, inflation and labor data have reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while the weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to non-dollar buyers. Gold has also moved above its 100-day moving average near $4,386, keeping the technical structure constructive, with $4,400 acting as an important breakout level and the $4,500 area as the next major resistance. Beyond monetary policy, structural demand remains supportive, with central-bank gold purchases reaching 289 tonnes in Q2, worth around $45 billion, while 45% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months. Renewed ETF demand and continued Chinese central-bank purchases further strengthen the underlying bullish case for bullion.
However, the outlook for both assets remains sensitive to the oil-inflation-Fed relationship. Brent crude is holding around $88–89 after gaining roughly 6% last week, while WTI remains around $82, as the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict and restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic keep energy prices elevated. A further oil surge could revive inflation concerns, limit the Fed’s ability to ease policy and provide temporary support to the dollar, while potentially triggering a correction in gold. Conversely, continued geopolitical tensions or further disruption around Hormuz would strengthen gold’s safe-haven appeal. The key near-term catalysts are therefore the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, upcoming U.S. PMI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on August 27–29. Overall, the fundamental bias remains bearish for USD and bullish for gold, with weaker U.S. data and reduced Fed-hike expectations driving the dollar lower, while gold benefits from dollar weakness, lower-rate expectations, central-bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold remains bullish on trading around 4,395 after recovering from the recent pullback toward the 4,330 support zone. Price is consolidating just below the 4,405 resistance, while the broader structure continues to show higher highs and higher lows. A sustained break above 4,405 could open the way toward the 4,450 resistance, with the 4,520 area as the next major upside target.
Momentum, however, has moderated. RSI has eased to around 56, remaining above the neutral 50 level but showing that buying pressure is no longer as strong as during the earlier rally. Meanwhile, MACD remains bearish, with the MACD line below the signal line and the histogram still negative, suggesting near-term consolidation or a corrective phase rather than a confirmed reversal.
Resistance Levels: 4520.00, 4645.00
Support Levels: 4375.00, 4220.00
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