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Published: 7 August 2026,11:12
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Dollar Index remains near the lower end of its recent range ahead of the NFP report
*Recent US labour data shows mixed but generally softer momentum
*July payrolls are expected to rise by around 80K, compared with 57K previously
*Gold consolidates as traders lock in profits before the next major Fed policy signal
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, remained near the lower end of its recent range as traders stayed cautious ahead of the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Although the dollar recovered slightly, overall momentum remained limited as investors avoided taking strong directional positions before the data release.
Recent US labour-market indicators have presented a mixed picture, but the broader tone points to softer momentum. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 199K, better than expectations of 203K, suggesting that layoffs remain contained. However, other employment-related indicators were less encouraging. JOLTS Job Openings fell to 7.359 million, below expectations of 7.440 million, while ADP Employment Change increased by only 44K, missing expectations of 68K. The ISM Services Employment Index also dropped to 47.4, below expectations of 51.2 and falling into contraction territory.
This mixed labour backdrop has kept the dollar in wait-and-see mode. Economists expect July payrolls to increase by around 80K, compared with the previous reading of 57K. A weaker-than-expected report could pressure the dollar further by reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy again. On the other hand, an upside surprise may support Treasury yields and provide short-term strength for the greenback.
Gold prices also consolidated ahead of the jobs report, pulling back slightly after their recent rally as traders locked in profits. The precious metal has been supported by weaker US employment indicators and reduced expectations of aggressive monetary tightening, but investors remain cautious before receiving clearer confirmation from the NFP data.
The key risk for gold is whether the payroll report changes the market’s view on the Fed’s policy path. Stronger-than-expected payrolls, a lower unemployment rate, or firmer wage growth could lift Treasury yields and the US dollar, creating renewed pressure on non-yielding bullion. However, softer labour data may reinforce expectations of a less hawkish Fed, helping gold regain support.
Overall, both the dollar and gold remain highly sensitive to the upcoming NFP report. The data will be crucial in shaping expectations for Treasury yields, Fed policy, and near-term market direction.
Technical Analysis
The dollar index is trading higher, currently testing the 100.05 resistance level, which acts as a key near-term breakout zone.
Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the MACD showing increasing bullish momentum and the RSI at 50 rebounding sharply from oversold territory, suggesting that buying pressure is improving.
A confirmed breakout above 100.05 could extend gains toward the next resistance level at 100.65, reinforcing the short-term bullish structure.
However, if bullish momentum fails to sustain, the index may retrace and retest the 99.60 support level, followed by 99.05 if selling pressure increases.
Resistance Levels: 100.05, 100.65
Support Levels: 99.60, 99.05
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