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Published: 11 August 2026,10:59
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Gold extended its rally above $4,400 as weaker US jobs data reduced Fed hike expectations and boosted safe-haven demand.
*Higher oil prices and renewed inflation risks could limit gold’s upside by supporting yields and the dollar.
*Strong central-bank and Chinese demand continues to provide a solid fundamental floor for gold.
Gold extended its rally for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, rising above $4,400/oz to its highest level in more than two months, as traders continued to price in reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike following the unexpectedly weak July jobs report. The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, while previous months were revised sharply lower, prompting markets to reassess the Fed’s policy path. Lower rate expectations have supported gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal, while renewed safe-haven demand and short-covering have added further momentum.
However, the gold rally is facing an important test from renewed oil-driven inflation risks. Crude prices have surged as hopes for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded, with Iran maintaining demands including compensation, sanctions relief and changes to the US military presence. Higher oil prices could feed into inflation expectations and encourage the Fed to maintain a tighter policy stance, potentially lifting Treasury yields and limiting gold’s upside. Despite this headwind, gold has remained resilient even as the dollar and yields moved higher, suggesting that safe-haven demand and changing investor perceptions of gold are becoming increasingly important drivers.
The China and central-bank demand story also provides a stronger fundamental floor. The PBOC increased its gold reserves by around 20 tonnes in July, its largest monthly addition since October 2023, extending its buying streak to 21 consecutive months. Chinese gold-backed ETF inflows have also strengthened, while speculative positioning has improved as managed-money net longs in COMEX gold reached their highest level since January. This combination of official-sector accumulation, investor demand and geopolitical uncertainty could help sustain the broader recovery even if short-term profit-taking emerges.
Looking ahead, US CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday are the key catalysts. A softer inflation reading would reinforce the post-jobs-report dovish narrative, potentially weakening the dollar and Treasury yields while opening the way for gold to challenge the $4,460–$4,500 area. Conversely, a hotter CPI particularly if elevated energy prices begin feeding into inflation could revive Fed hike expectations and trigger a correction. Technically, gold remains above its 100-day moving average around $4,390, while the 200-day moving average near $4,500 represents a major resistance zone.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold remains in a strong bullish trend extending its breakout after decisively moving above the descending trendline and the 4,375 resistance. The latest rally has pushed price toward 4,430, with bullish momentum remaining strong after several consecutive upward candles.
Momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls, although they suggest the rally is becoming overextended in the short term. The RSI has climbed to around 76, firmly into overbought territory while remaining above its moving average, indicating strong buying pressure but also increasing the risk of short-term consolidation or profit-taking. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in a bullish configuration, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram still positive, confirming that upward momentum remains strong. Overall, the near-term outlook remains bullish. The breakout above 4,375, combined with positive momentum from both RSI and MACD, supports further gains.
Resistance Levels: 4375.00, 4520.00
Support Levels:4220.00, 4100.00
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