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Published: 13 August 2026,07:34
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*US crude inventories surged by 17.4 million barrels, the largest weekly increase in around three and a half years.
*The massive inventory build raised concerns over weaker near-term oil demand and softer export activity.
*US–Iran negotiations remain deadlocked, keeping supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz elevated.
Crude oil prices edged lower as a surprisingly large increase in US inventories outweighed ongoing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East.
According to the Energy Information Administration, US crude inventories jumped by 17.4 million barrels in the latest week, compared with market expectations for a decline. The increase was the largest since January 2023 and was driven partly by weaker crude exports and higher imports, reinforcing concerns over near-term demand conditions.
The broader demand outlook has also become more cautious. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency recently lowered their 2026 oil-demand forecasts, adding further pressure to crude prices.
However, the downside remains limited by continued uncertainty surrounding the US–Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Iranian source said there had been no progress in efforts to revive the interim agreement reached in June, leaving negotiations over shipping access unresolved.
Shipping conditions have also deteriorated, with some vessels reportedly switching off tracking signals because of security concerns. This reduces transparency over actual supply flows and makes it more difficult for traders to assess how much crude is moving through the region.
For now, crude oil remains caught between bearish inventory and demand signals and bullish geopolitical supply risks. Further developments in US–Iran negotiations and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to remain the key catalysts for oil prices.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading higher after breaking above the previous 80.80 resistance level, with price action now consolidating above this key level.
If bullish momentum persists, the breakout could remain valid, with prices potentially extending gains toward the next resistance level at 86.95, followed by 93.45 if upside momentum strengthens.
However, momentum indicators suggest caution. The MACD is showing increasing bearish momentum, while the RSI at 56 is retracing sharply from overbought territory, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical correction.
If bullish momentum fails to sustain, crude oil may retrace and retest the 80.80 support level, followed by 74.95 if selling pressure increases.
Resistance Levels: 86.95, 93.45
Support Levels: 80.80, 74.95
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