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Published: 10 August 2026,08:46
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*The dollar remains under pressure as weak US labor data lowers Fed hike expectations, while gold stays supported by falling yields and a softer USD.
*US CPI with a soft reading likely to reinforce dollar weakness and extend gold’s upside, while hotter inflation could revive Fed hike bets and pressure bullion.
*Geopolitical risks remain supportive for gold, while uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz could keep oil and inflation risks elevated.
The US dollar remains under pressure near a two-month low, with the DXY hovering around 99.6, while gold has maintained its recent strength above $4,300. The main catalyst has been the unexpectedly weak July US employment report, which showed nonfarm payrolls falling by 23,000 while previous months were revised sharply lower. The deterioration in labor-market conditions reduced expectations for another Fed rate hike, with September hike odds falling to around 44% from roughly 67% a week earlier, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased toward 4.64%. Lower real-rate expectations have weighed on the dollar while simultaneously reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, helping bullion post its strongest weekly performance since January and briefly rise toward $4,360–$4,390.
However, the outlook for both assets remains highly dependent on whether weaker employment eventually translates into softer inflation. Fed officials have maintained a hawkish bias, emphasizing that persistent inflation could still require tighter policy, creating a divergence between a cooling labor market and sticky price pressures. The upcoming US July CPI on Wednesday is therefore the key catalyst, with markets expecting core CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. A softer-than-expected reading would reinforce expectations for a less hawkish Fed, potentially extending dollar weakness and supporting gold toward the $4,440–$4,500 region. Conversely, a hotter CPI could lift Treasury yields and revive Fed hike expectations, providing support for the dollar while triggering profit-taking in gold.
Gold is also benefiting from stronger underlying investment demand, with gold ETFs recording around US$3 billion of net inflows in July, reversing two consecutive months of outflows. Persistent central-bank demand and strong Asian retail buying are providing additional support, while geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Iran-US conflict and Strait of Hormuz continues to reinforce safe-haven demand. Nevertheless, gold slipped around 0.5% toward $4,322 on Monday as investors took profits after last week’s sharp rally. The move appears more consistent with short-term consolidation than a fundamental reversal, with $4,300 emerging as an important near-term support area.
The geopolitical backdrop creates a two-way risk for both assets. Continued uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz could support safe-haven demand for gold and, during periods of heightened risk aversion, the US dollar, while higher oil prices could simultaneously revive inflation expectations and limit the Fed’s ability to ease policy. Conversely, a credible reopening of Hormuz would reduce geopolitical and inflation risks, potentially supporting risk assets while weakening some of gold’s safe-haven premium. Overall, the USD faces near-term downside pressure while gold retains a bullish fundamental bias, but both remain highly sensitive to Wednesday’s CPI and the interaction between US inflation, Treasury yields and Middle East developments.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold remains firmly bullish after breaking out of its prolonged consolidation range and clearing the descending trendline. Price has surged above the 4,101 resistance zone and subsequently broke through 4,218.91, reaching a recent high near 4,340 before pulling back slightly. The breakout confirms a significant improvement in the medium-term structure, with former resistance around 4,101 now becoming an important support area. As long as price holds above 4,218.91, the bullish structure remains intact, while a sustained break above 4,374.11 could open the way toward 4,518.33.
Momentum indicators continue to support the bullish outlook, although conditions are becoming increasingly stretched. RSI has risen to around 69 and remains above its moving average, approaching overbought territory and reflecting strong buying pressure. Meanwhile, MACD remains firmly bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram staying positive. Although the latest histogram bars have started to moderate, the overall momentum structure remains constructive, suggesting that buyers continue to dominate despite the possibility of a short-term pullback. Overall, Gold maintains a strong bullish bias following the breakout from its multi-week consolidation range.
Resistance Levels: 30415.00, 31565.00
Support Levels: 28555.00, 27220.00
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