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Published: 10 August 2026,07:43
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Oil rebounded after last week’s sharp sell-off as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reopening restored the geopolitical risk premium.
*Supply risks remain elevated, with limited shipping through Hormuz and renewed attacks on regional energy infrastructure keeping traders cautious.
*Diplomatic progress remains the key downside risk, as a confirmed reopening could quickly unwind the risk premium and pressure crude lower.
Crude oil has regained momentum after suffering a more than 7% weekly decline, with Brent recovering above $84 and WTI trading around $79 as markets reassessed the likelihood of a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The initial sell-off was driven by optimism that Iran and Oman were close to establishing new shipping arrangements, which encouraged traders to remove part of the geopolitical risk premium from crude. However, Iran subsequently stressed that an agreement with Oman would not automatically mean an immediate full reopening of the waterway, while Tehran continues to demand additional conditions from Washington. This has caused traders to rebuild some of the supply-risk premium.
The physical supply situation remains particularly important. The Strait of Hormuz normally handles a substantial portion of global oil flows, meaning prolonged restrictions could materially affect international supply expectations. Traders are therefore looking for actual evidence of normalized tanker movements rather than relying solely on diplomatic headlines. Additional regional security developments have also increased caution: Iran-aligned Houthi forces claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery, while ADNOC reported that 15 of its vessels had been attacked while transiting the Strait since the beginning of the conflict. These developments suggest that shipping risks remain elevated even as diplomatic efforts continue.
At the same time, there are competing forces limiting the upside. A successful diplomatic agreement and verified restoration of shipping through Hormuz could rapidly remove the geopolitical premium and send crude lower again. The market has already demonstrated how aggressively it can react to de-escalation headlines, with both Brent and WTI losing more than 7% last week. This makes crude extremely sensitive to every headline from Tehran, Washington and Oman. Until normal shipping flows are visibly restored, however, traders are likely to maintain some premium for disruption risk.
Oil also has an increasingly important macro connection to the US dollar and gold. Persistent crude strength could feed into inflation expectations just as markets are preparing for US CPI, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to adopt a more dovish stance. That could support the dollar while simultaneously creating a headwind for gold. Conversely, a successful Hormuz reopening would ease energy inflation, potentially reinforce expectations for lower US rates and support both gold and risk assets. For now, the fundamental bias for oil remains cautiously bullish above the mid-$70s, but the direction is likely to remain headline-driven until there is clearer evidence of normalized shipping.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude Oil remains in a broader corrective phase after failing to sustain the rally toward the 93.45 resistance area, although recent price action shows signs of a short-term recovery. Oil has rebounded from the 74.95 support level and gradually climbed back toward the 80.81 resistance zone. However, price is now approaching both the 80.81 horizontal resistance and the descending trendline from the 93.45 peak, creating a key technical barrier. A decisive break above this confluence would strengthen the recovery outlook and expose the 86.93 resistance level, while rejection could trigger another pullback toward 74.95.
Momentum indicators have improved and are beginning to favor the buyers. RSI has recovered to around 53 and moved above its moving average, indicating that buying pressure is gradually strengthening while remaining away from overbought territory. Meanwhile, MACD has turned bullish, with the MACD line moving above the signal line and the histogram shifting into positive territory. However, both MACD lines remain below the zero line, suggesting that the current bullish momentum is still part of a recovery rather than a confirmed broader trend reversal. Overall, Crude Oil is showing a short-term bullish recovery within a broader corrective structure.
Resistance Levels: 157.85, 159.60
Support Levels: 155.65, 154.00
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