24/7 SUPPORT
Download App
Published: 30 July 2026,06:21
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Oil surged sharply after renewed US-Iran tensions reignited fears of supply disruptions, pushing Brent above $90 and WTI toward $85.
*Bullish supply fundamentals also supported prices, with US crude inventories falling to their lowest level since 2018 and expectations growing that OPEC+ may delay output increases.
*Prices eased slightly in Asian trading as traders took profits and continued tanker movements reduced immediate concerns over severe supply disruptions.
Crude oil prices recorded one of their strongest daily gains in recent months, with Brent crude surging nearly 8% above $90 per barrel and WTI jumping more than 7% toward the $84–85 region, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply. The rally was triggered after Iran reportedly launched missile attacks targeting US forces, while the United States and Saudi Arabia responded with fresh air strikes against Iran-backed groups in Iraq following attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. Additional concerns emerged after President Donald Trump warned that Washington would respond forcefully to further Iranian aggression, while reports indicated renewed threats to commercial shipping through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising fears of potential disruptions to global oil supplies.
Oil prices also received additional support from fundamentally bullish supply data. The US Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories fell by more than 7 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations and pushing stockpiles to their lowest levels since 2018. Robust exports, firm domestic demand and speculation that OPEC+ may pause planned production increases beginning in October further reinforced expectations of a tighter global oil market. Together with the elevated geopolitical risk premium, these developments fuelled aggressive buying across the energy sector.
Despite Wednesday’s explosive rally, crude prices edged lower during Thursday’s Asian session as traders took profits and assessed whether actual supply disruptions would materialise. Preliminary shipping data showed that oil tankers continued moving through alternative export routes, with increased traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, easing immediate concerns that global energy flows would be severely disrupted. Although the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted and geopolitical risks remain elevated, the continued movement of tankers suggests that physical supply has not yet been significantly interrupted, prompting a modest pullback after the previous session’s sharp gains.
Looking ahead, oil is expected to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Any escalation involving Iran, further attacks on energy infrastructure, or additional restrictions on shipping routes could quickly restore upward momentum in crude prices. Conversely, signs that alternative export routes remain operational or renewed diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions may encourage further profit-taking. Nevertheless, with geopolitical risks remaining elevated, US inventories tightening, and the prospect of OPEC+ maintaining a disciplined production strategy, the broader fundamental backdrop continues to support oil prices despite the latest short-term correction.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil remains in a broader recovery trend, but the recent rally has lost momentum after failing to sustain gains above the 90.00–93.10 resistance zone. Price has pulled back sharply from the recent peak and briefly tested the 78.05 support level before rebounding toward the 85.00 area. The recovery suggests buyers are attempting to stabilize the market, but price remains below the broken short-term ascending trendline and the 87.25 resistance level, indicating that the bullish structure has weakened.
Momentum indicators are showing early signs of improvement, although confirmation remains limited. RSI has rebounded to around 49 and moved back above its moving average, suggesting that selling pressure has eased and momentum is gradually recovering. Meanwhile, MACD has turned higher, with the histogram moving back into positive territory and the MACD line attempting to cross above the signal line. However, both indicators remain relatively weak compared with the earlier bullish phase, indicating that the rebound may still face resistance. Overall, crude oil is attempting to recover following a sharp correction, but the near-term outlook remains neutral to cautiously bearish
Resistance Levels: 87.60, 95.80
Support Levels: 78.05, 68.90
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Important Notice: Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely on your own initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on a reverse solicitation basis in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
