Published: 26 December 2025,08:01
Weekly Outlook New
The Week Ahead: Week of December 29, 2025 (GMT+8)
Weekly Market Preview
After a volatile December shaped by central bank decisions, shifting rate-cut expectations, and late-year geopolitical risks, markets are entering a distinctly quieter phase. Widespread New Year’s Day holidays across Europe, Asia, and parts of the Americas will significantly reduce trading volumes, increasing the risk of exaggerated moves on limited flows rather than fundamentals.
With most investors already positioned for 2026 narratives particularly around Fed easing expectations, soft-landing prospects, and geopolitical risk premiums as this week’s data is unlikely to reset trends outright. Instead, remaining releases will serve as confirmation signals, helping markets validate whether recent moves in the U.S. dollar, equities, oil, and risk assets are sustainable into the new year.
Key Events to Watch:
Monday, December 29 – 18:30
US Crude Oil Inventories
Previous: -1.274M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Oil markets head into the final week of 2025 supported by lingering geopolitical risk premiums, even as demand concerns and ample supply cap upside momentum. With liquidity thinning, inventory data could trigger outsized short-term moves. A larger-than-expected draw may reinforce recent price stability, while a surprise build could pressure crude back toward year-end lows amid muted holiday demand.
Tuesday, December 30 – 16:45 / 17:00
China Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
Previous: 49.2 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
China’s manufacturing sector has remained under pressure, reflecting weak domestic demand and ongoing structural challenges. A PMI reading below 50 would underscore contractionary conditions and could weigh on risk sentiment, commodities, and China-linked currencies. Conversely, any upside surprise may offer modest relief to regional equities and industrial metals, though broader impact is likely to be limited by holiday conditions.
Tuesday, December 30 – 21:30
US Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: 214K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Labor market data remains a key input into Fed rate-cut expectations heading into 2026. While claims tend to be volatile around holidays, a sustained rise could reinforce the narrative of a cooling U.S. labor market and keep the U.S. dollar on the defensive. A resilient print, however, may help stabilize the greenback in thin trading conditions.
Wednesday, December 31 – 22:45
Chicago PMI (Dec)
Previous: 38.3 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Chicago PMI has been deeply contractionary, highlighting ongoing weakness in U.S. manufacturing. Any improvement may support risk sentiment marginally, but a persistently weak reading would reinforce expectations that manufacturing recovery remains a 2026 story rather than a year-end reality.
Friday, January 2 – 17:45
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
Previous: 51.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
As the final major U.S. data release of 2025, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched for clues on momentum heading into the new year. A move back below 50 would raise concerns about growth durability, potentially pressuring equities and supporting bonds. A stronger-than-expected reading could help sustain the Santa-to-New-Year risk-on transition, especially if liquidity gradually improves.
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