Published: 9 March 2026,06:11
Daily Market Analysis New
*Despite escalating Middle East tensions, gold is struggling to hold above $5,000 while silver has dropped over 10%, defying the usual geopolitical safe-haven rally.
*Crude surging above $100 due to disruption at the Strait of Hormuz has raised inflation fears, pushing markets to price a more hawkish Fed.
*The U.S. Dollar Index climbed to its highest level since December, diverting safe-haven demand away from bullion and weighing on both gold and silver.
Market Summary:
As the Middle East conflict enters its second week with crossfire intensifying on both sides, traditional safe-haven assets have exhibited an atypical response. Gold is struggling to maintain a foothold above the $5,000 mark, while silver has slid more than 10 % to hover near $80.00, defying the historical pattern where geopolitical turmoil typically drives investors toward precious metals.
The rationale for this divergence lies in the shifting dynamics of non-yielding asset attractiveness. The surge in crude prices—with both Brent and WTI breaching the $100.00 mark at the week’s open following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz—has heightened market concerns over global inflationary pressures. This has fundamentally altered the policy calculus: markets are now betting on a more hawkish Federal Reserve to contain inflation, drawing investors toward yielding assets such as Treasuries rather than bullion.
The dollar has emerged as the primary beneficiary of this repricing. The Dollar Index has climbed to its highest level since last December, with the U.S. currency overtaking gold as the preferred safe-haven destination. The dollar index rose 0.5 percent in early trading, building on last week’s 1.3 percent gain.
Gold futures are set to post their worst weekly decline since January, snapping a four-week winning streak. The metal’s 1.6 % weekly drop reflects the powerful headwinds from both dollar strength and rising Treasury yields, with 10-year yields looking at a gain of 22 basis points this week. Reports indicate gold is being offered at a discount in Dubai as the conflict grounds flights and prevents suppliers from moving bullion out of that crucial trading hub. Traders are offering discounts of as much as $30 an ounce to the global benchmark in London, with buyers in India stepping back from new orders due to high shipping and insurance costs.
Silver has suffered even more acutely, poised for its worst week since January with a decline exceeding 9.5%, snapping a three-week winning streak. The metal’s higher volatility and industrial demand exposure have amplified the downside relative to gold, with spot silver briefly falling below $80.00, dropping more than 5 % in early trading .
The immediate trajectory for precious metals hinges on the interplay between oil-driven inflation expectations and Fed policy signals. A sustained break below the $5,000 psychological level for gold could trigger further technical selling. For now, the path of least resistance remains lower as the dollar’s dominance persists.
Technical Analysis
Silver prices have broken decisively from their prior uptrend trajectory and are now trading within a defined range underneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $84.83. This configuration confirms that the metal continues to trade within its broader downtrend structure, with the Fibonacci level now serving as a technical ceiling.
Multiple technical analyses corroborate this bearish structure, with the metal holding well below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average near $84.50, keeping the recent downswing in control . The MACD indicator has slipped further into negative territory with the line extending below its signal, and the expanding negative histogram signals strengthening downside momentum. The Relative Strength Index at 42 hovers just above oversold, indicating persistent selling pressure .
Should the metal fail to sustain within its current range-bound trading, the breakdown would accelerate selling pressure toward the immediate support line at $79.45. A decisive break below this threshold would expose the next downside level near $74.55, with deeper extension potentially targeting $70.00 as the next bearish objective.
Resistance Levels: 86.30, 93.30
Support Levels: 79.45, 74.55
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