Published: 30 March 2026,06:13
Daily Market Analysis New
*The Australian Dollar fell toward 0.6850 as Middle East tensions dampen global growth outlook and commodity demand.
*Markets await insights from the RBA minutes after the recent rate hike, with attention on inflation risks and policy outlook.
*Hawkish signals could lift AUD toward 0.7000, while dovish cues may expose downside toward 0.6800.
The Australian dollar has weakened notably over the past week, with AUD/USD sliding from around 0.7040 on March 23 to approximately 0.6850–0.6870 as of writing, marking a decline of more than 2.5 percent and taking the currency to its lowest level in two months. Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven the move, as fears of a prolonged energy shock cloud the global growth outlook and weigh on demand for Australian commodities. At the same time, the currency’s traditional support from relatively higher domestic interest rates has begun to fade as markets anticipate further tightening from other major central banks, narrowing the yield advantage that had underpinned the Aussie’s recent outperformance.
Tomorrow, March 31, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes from its March Monetary Policy Board Meeting, at which the cash rate was lifted 25 basis points to 4.10 percent in a closely watched 5–4 split decision. The vote reflected heightened concern within the board that inflation could remain above the 2–3 percent target band for longer amid rising energy costs and resilient domestic demand.
Traders will scrutinize the minutes for greater detail on the internal policy debate. Key areas of focus include the board’s assessment of inflation risks stemming from higher oil prices, the potential drag on household spending and growth, and any signals about the likelihood of additional tightening. Markets currently assign approximately a 68 percent probability to a further hike in May.
A clearly hawkish tone that emphasizes the need to anchor inflation expectations could offer the Australian dollar near-term support by reinforcing the case for higher-for-longer rates. Such an outcome would likely help the currency recover toward the 0.6950–0.6980 resistance zone. Conversely, any dovish emphasis on downside growth risks or the need for caution could intensify selling pressure and extend the currency’s recent decline, potentially exposing the 0.6800 psychological level and the 0.6760 support region.
The minutes release is expected to set the near-term tone for AUD trading, with the market remaining highly sensitive to how the RBA balances inflation control against the evolving geopolitical backdrop. The currency’s trajectory will also be influenced by broader risk sentiment and developments in the Middle East, which continue to drive volatility across commodity and currency markets.
Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair has decisively broken its prior bullish trajectory following a false breakout at the peak, confirming a structural shift and establishing a well-defined downtrend channel. The pair has been trading within this descending channel since mid-March, reflecting sustained selling pressure and an absence of bullish conviction.
The immediate support lies at the 0.6821 mark. A failure to find support at this level would trigger a stronger sell-off, opening a path toward the next downside target at 0.6710—a level representing a key technical and psychological support zone. The measured move from the channel breakdown projects further downside potential toward the 0.6650 region should bearish momentum persist.
Momentum indicators strongly support the bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index continues to trend downward, holding below the 50-midpoint and reflecting sustained selling pressure. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains entrenched in bearish territory, with the histogram expanding lower, confirming that downside momentum is accelerating.
Resistance Levels: 0.6934, 0.7030
Support Levels: 0.6821, 0.6710
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