Published: 13 March 2026,07:31
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil prices remain elevated as the US-Iran conflict enters its 13th day, keeping energy markets on edge.
*Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, raising severe supply disruption risks.
*The International Energy Agency warns the potential disruption could become the largest in global oil market history.
*Rising oil prices could trigger spillover effects across markets, lifting Treasury yields, strengthening the dollar, and pressuring equities.
Market Summary:
Energy markets remain under intense pressure as the war between the United States and Iran shows little sign of de-escalation. Both sides struck defiant tones on the 13th day of the conflict, offering little relief for global energy markets despite efforts from Washington to stabilize oil prices. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that Tehran would work to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, while warning that additional fronts could be opened if attacks by the United States and Israel persist.
Oil prices continue to edge higher during what has become one of the most volatile trading weeks in recent history. Markets are bracing for prolonged uncertainty as Iran pledges to restrict the vital shipping route. The International Energy Agency warned that a sustained disruption could become the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market. Although member nations have agreed to a historic release of emergency reserves in an attempt to stabilize prices, the effectiveness of such measures may remain limited if the geopolitical conflict continues to escalate.
The near-halt in shipping through the narrow Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global energy flows — has severely disrupted the transportation of crude oil, natural gas, and refined products such as diesel. This has driven energy prices sharply higher and sparked concerns over a renewed global inflation shock, with several economies already beginning to feel the impact of rising energy costs.
Rising oil prices could also create significant spillover effects across financial markets. Higher energy costs tend to push inflation expectations upward, which may lift US Treasury yields and provide support for the US dollar. However, a stronger dollar and rising yields could simultaneously weigh on gold prices and pressure equity markets, as tighter financial conditions and inflation concerns reduce the attractiveness of risk assets.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil has entered a consolidation phase, currently oscillating between the 97.85 resistance and 93.60 support.
While the price remains relatively high, technical indicators on the H4 chart are beginning to tilt bearish; the MACD shows expanding bearish momentum and the RSI (56) is retreating from overbought levels. This suggests a likely re-test of the 93.60 support floor.
A break below this level could trigger a deeper correction toward 88.30, while a breakout above 97.85 would be required to resume the bullish trend toward 102.15.
Resistance Levels: 97.85, 102.15
Support Levels: 93.60, 88.30
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