Published: 26 March 2026,06:00
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Oil dips initially on ceasefire optimism, before uncertainty resurfaces
*U.S. proposes 15-point plan targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs
*Iran rejects conditions, raising doubts over near-term agreement
Crude oil prices edged lower initially as optimism over a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran helped ease concerns over supply disruptions.
Both sides have entered a five-day negotiation window, with the United States proposing a 15-point peace framework. The plan reportedly includes demands for the full termination of Iran’s nuclear program, alongside strict limitations on its missile capabilities, forming the basis for broader de-escalation talks.
However, sentiment quickly turned cautious after Iran rejected the proposed ceasefire conditions, underscoring the challenges in reaching a near-term agreement. The latest developments highlight the fragile nature of ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Despite dismissing the U.S. proposal, Iranian officials signaled that negotiations remain possible. In a statement broadcast via state television, an official indicated that Iran would only consider halting attacks if the United States agrees to war reparations and formally recognizes Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait — a critical artery for global oil supply — has been effectively disrupted, with shipping flows significantly constrained. This has kept supply-side risks elevated, limiting the downside in oil prices despite intermittent signs of diplomatic progress.
Overall, the outlook remains highly uncertain. In the near term, price action is likely to be driven by headline risk, with markets closely monitoring developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations for clearer trading signals.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4
Crude oil prices are trending higher, currently testing the key resistance level at 92.50, which represents a critical breakout point for further upside continuation.
Momentum indicators remain firmly bullish. The MACD is expanding to the upside, while the RSI at 61 holds above the midline, signaling sustained buying interest and strengthening momentum.
A successful break above 92.50 would likely confirm bullish continuation, opening the path toward the next resistance at 101.25.
However, if bullish momentum fails to sustain, prices may enter a corrective phase, with a pullback toward the 86.80 support level, which serves as a key demand zone.
Resistance Levels: 92.50, 101.25
Support Levels: 86.80, 79.65
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