24 October 2025,03:47
Daily Market Analysis New
24 October 2025, 03:47
*Supply Disruption: U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil threaten up to 2 million bpd of Russian exports, forcing a rerouting of global oil flows.
*Temporary Tightness: Brent and WTI surged over 5% as traders priced in short-term supply risk, though a U.S. grace period until Nov 21 tempers the shock.
*OPEC+ Readiness: Kuwait and other OPEC+ members signaled willingness to boost output to fill potential gaps, mitigating extreme price spikes.
Crude oil prices remain volatile as markets weigh short-term supply disruptions against an emerging structural surplus narrative. The latest surge of over 5% in both Brent and WTI came after the U.S. imposed direct sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, a move that jolted global trade flows and sparked fears of reduced supply. Together, the two companies account for nearly half of Russia’s crude exports, primarily bound for Asia. Initial reports suggest that Chinese and Indian refiners have sharply curtailed purchases, forcing Russian barrels into alternative, lower-priced markets.
Despite the sharp initial rally, traders are cautious about durability. The U.S. has allowed a grace period until November 21 to phase in restrictions, aiming to avoid immediate supply chaos. Meanwhile, OPEC+ has signaled readiness to ramp up output to stabilize markets, with Kuwait’s oil minister noting the group’s preparedness to offset lost Russian volumes. These balancing factors suggest that while sanctions introduce near-term tightness, the broader market context remains one of ample supply. The International Energy Agency projects an oversupply of roughly 4 million bpd by 2026, highlighting longer-term headwinds for prices.
For now, crude remains a headline-driven market oscillating between geopolitical risk premiums and supply-demand fundamentals. If enforcement of sanctions proves strict and Russian exports meaningfully decline, oil may find a durable floor above $80. However, any signs of circumvention or a slowdown in global demand could quickly re-anchor prices lower. The market’s medium-term trajectory thus hinges on enforcement credibility, OPEC+ policy coordination, and the evolving macroeconomic backdrop.
Crude Oil, H4:
USOIL (WTI Crude) has staged a strong rebound on the chart, breaking decisively above the descending channel that had contained prices for most of October. The bullish breakout was fueled by strong momentum, with prices surging past the $60.10 and $61.50 resistance zones before pausing just below $63.30. This move signals a potential shift in short-term sentiment from bearish to bullish, especially as the price now trades above the 20- and 50-period moving averages, both of which are starting to turn higher.
However, the rally appears slightly overextended in the near term. The RSI has surged to around 73, indicating overbought conditions and suggesting the risk of a short-term pullback or consolidation before further upside. Meanwhile, the MACD shows expanding positive histogram bars and a widening bullish crossover, confirming strong buying momentum but also hinting at the possibility of exhaustion if momentum fades.
If USOIL sustains above $61.50, the next upside target lies near $63.30 and $65.00. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $60.10 which is the previous breakout level followed by $58.30. A retest of this support zone could offer a healthy correction before the next leg higher, provided prices remain above the lower channel boundary.
Resistance Levels: 63.30, 65.00
Support Levels: 61.50, 60.10
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