Published: 23 March 2026,03:25
Daily Market Analysis New
*Brent Crude trades near $111.50 after spiking toward $120, while WTI holds near $98 as supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz dominate markets.
*Production shut-ins across Gulf producers and LNG disruptions have removed millions of barrels, embedding a strong risk premium in crude prices.
*Brent likely stays above $95–$100, with potential retests of $115–$120 if tensions escalate, while downside depends on diplomatic progress or supply recovery.
Crude oil markets have experienced extreme volatility in March, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged to near $120 per barrel earlier in the month amid fears of prolonged supply disruptions, before pulling back to trade around $111.50 per barrel as of March 23. WTI crude hovers near $98.30 per barrel, reflecting a monthly gain of 50-60 percent from February levels.
The sharp rally stems from the effective partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the chokepoint through which approximately 20 percent of global oil flows—combined with shut-ins of regional production and attacks on energy infrastructure. Shipping through the strait has plummeted to roughly five vessels daily from a normal average of 138, with Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait forced to shut in millions of barrels daily as storage fills and exports stall. QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on LNG exports, with restoration expected to take at least a month .
Prices are likely to remain elevated above $95-$100 per barrel for Brent, supported by ongoing Strait of Hormuz uncertainties and limited immediate resolution to the conflict. Technical indicators suggest potential tests of resistance near $115-$120 if fresh escalation news emerges, such as further military developments or U.S. involvement. Support sits around $105-$108; a break below could signal temporary relief from diplomatic progress or increased alternative supply flows.
Several factors could provide relief: U.S.-led naval escorts successfully protecting tankers and restoring some shipping confidence; OPEC+ adding more than the modest 206,000 barrels per day agreed for April; or progress toward de-escalation talks between the U.S. and Iran. However, the EIA’s forecast for Brent to average $106 per barrel in the second quarter reflects the market’s assessment that disruptions will persist, with analysts noting that the Middle East accounts for the majority of the world’s spare capacity, making it difficult to offset prolonged outages.
For now, the risk premium remains embedded, and markets remain highly sensitive to headline risk. Without major de-escalation, upside risks persist, though extreme spikes may face intervention or market fatigue.
Technical Analysis
Brent crude continues to trade within its established bullish trajectory, with prices pushing toward the critical $120 mark. The black gold has now been rejected twice at this level, reinforcing its significance as a formidable resistance zone. A decisive breakout above this short-term barrier would constitute a significant technical achievement, opening a clear path toward fresh three-year highs .
The repeated tests of the $120 level suggest accumulation of buying pressure, with each rejection absorbing selling interest. Multiple technical analyses identify this threshold as the key upside barrier, with a sustained break above potentially triggering accelerated momentum toward the $122-$125 region . The bullish structure remains intact as long as price holds above the $105-$108 support zone, with the uptrend line established since early March providing dynamic support .
Momentum indicators support the constructive near-term bias. The RSI remains in overbought levels, allowing room for further upside without immediate exhaustion signals. The MACD remains elevated with the histogram showing signs of stabilization following a modest pullback. A successful breakout above $120 would likely accelerate buying interest, targeting the $122-$125 zone initially and potentially the $130 level later in Q2 if geopolitical tensions persist .
Resistance Levels: 117.10, 125.70
Support Levels: 107.85, 99.65
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