28 October 2025,04:54
Daily Market Analysis New
28 October 2025, 04:54
*Crude prices are stabilizing after a 10% weekly surge, with momentum easing as traders reassess market fundamentals.
*Reports of a potential OPEC+ output increase and a Middle East ceasefire have reduced the geopolitical risk premium, tempering the bullish tone.
*The upcoming U.S.–China negotiations could determine oil’s next move—a positive outcome may revive demand and offset the impact of rising supply.
Oil prices have entered a phase of consolidation following a robust weekly advance of nearly 10% from recent lows, with bullish momentum showing signs of easing. The market is now grappling with a clash of opposing fundamental forces that are likely to dictate its near-term direction.
On the supply side, two key developments are exerting downward pressure. The OPEC+ alliance is reportedly leaning toward implementing a modest output increase for December, a move that would add barrels to a market that has recently found relief from another quarter. The successful ceasefire in the Middle East has significantly reduced the geopolitical risk premium, alleviating previous concerns over potential supply disruptions and contributing to a more stable supply outlook.
However, the demand side of the equation introduces a countervailing force. The market’s attention is now firmly fixed on the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. The outcome holds profound implications for the global economic outlook and, by extension, oil demand. A constructive agreement that revitalizes economic growth in China, the world’s largest crude importer, could provide a powerful bullish counterweight to the increasing supply, bolstering the demand outlook. Consequently, oil traders are navigating a delicate balance between these competing narratives of rising supply and uncertain demand, leading to the current period of range-bound trading as they await a clearer signal.
Oil prices have entered a phase of range-bound consolidation, hovering near recent highs and trading between $60.80 and $62.15 over the past two sessions. This pause, accompanied by noticeably easing bullish momentum, suggests the market is undergoing a period of equilibrium following its strong upward spike, increasing the likelihood of a near-term technical pullback.
The critical level to watch for a potential shift in market structure is the $60.10 support mark. A decisive break below this threshold would represent a significant technical development, likely triggering a bearish structural break and signaling a deeper correction.
This cautious outlook is reinforced by deteriorating momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought territory, indicating a loss of upward impetus. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has executed a bearish death cross, albeit while remaining above its zero line for now. This confluence of signals points to building downward pressure. While the broader trend may not yet be definitively broken, the immediate risk is skewed to the downside, with the market’s resilience set to be tested at the crucial $60.10 support level.
Resistance Levels: 63.30, 65.00
Support Levels: 60.10, 58.30
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