Published: 25 March 2026,06:54
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Oil prices fall as markets price in potential U.S.–Iran de-escalation
*Proposed 15-point framework outlines path toward diplomatic resolution
*Iran denies talks, keeping uncertainty elevated
Crude oil prices edged lower as markets continued to assess reports of a potential ceasefire framework between the United States and Iran, raising hopes of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
According to Israeli Channel 12, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are working on a proposed 15-point plan aimed at facilitating negotiations between both sides.
While specific details remain limited, the framework is understood to outline a structured roadmap addressing key areas such as nuclear activity restrictions, phased sanctions relief, regional security commitments, and broader de-escalation mechanisms. The proposal signals a potential pathway toward diplomatic resolution after heightened tensions disrupted global energy markets.
However, Iran has denied that formal negotiations are underway, highlighting the fragile and uncertain nature of the situation.
Despite the conflicting narratives, oil prices have already declined by approximately 14% this week following the U.S. decision to delay potential military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. The pullback suggests that even incremental progress toward diplomacy is sufficient to ease concerns over supply disruptions, particularly around critical transit routes.
Overall, the decline reflects a continued unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices, although markets remain highly sensitive to further developments.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4
Crude oil prices remain under pressure, currently testing the key support level at 86.80, which acts as a critical near-term floor for price action.
A confirmed break below 86.80 would likely validate further downside continuation, opening the path toward the next support at 79.65, in line with previous structural lows.
Momentum indicators continue to favor the bearish outlook. The MACD is expanding in negative territory, reflecting increasing downside momentum, while the RSI remains subdued at 34, holding below the neutral 50 level and signaling persistent selling pressure.
That said, should bearish momentum begin to fade, a technical rebound scenario could emerge. In such a case, prices may retrace toward the 92.50 resistance level, with a break above this level suggesting a short-term recovery and potential shift in sentiment.
Resistance Levels: 92.50, 101.25
Support Levels: 86.80, 79.65
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