Published: 16 January 2026,03:03
Weekly Outlook New
The Week Ahead: Week of January 19, 2025 (GMT+3)
Weekly Market Preview
Markets enter the week with reduced liquidity early on due to the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, potentially amplifying volatility as key macro data unfolds. Attention will quickly shift to inflation trends across major economies, alongside critical central bank decisions in Canada and Japan that could reshape near-term rate expectations.
U.S. data takes center stage later in the week, with GDP revisions, jobless claims, and the Core PCE Price Index offering fresh insight into growth momentum and underlying inflation pressures. In parallel, CPI prints from China, the Eurozone, and the UK will help define the global disinflation narrative, while flash PMI surveys provide a timely read on services and manufacturing activity heading into late January. With markets sensitive to policy divergence and growth signals, data surprises may drive sharp moves across FX, rates, and equities.
Key Events to Watch:
China GDP (YoY) (Q4)
Previous: 4.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
China’s Q4 growth figures will offer insight into the effectiveness of recent stimulus efforts. Stronger growth could support risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies, while weakness may revive concerns about global demand.
Monday, January 19 – 13:00
Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Dec)
Previous: 2.0% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Eurozone inflation data will be closely watched for confirmation that price pressures continue to cool. A softer print would reinforce expectations for ECB easing later in 2026, potentially weighing on EUR.
Monday, January 19 – 17:45
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision
Previous: 2.25% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Bank of Canada’s policy decision is a key event for CAD. Any shift in tone toward easing could pressure the currency, while a cautious stance on inflation may support CAD strength.
Wednesday, January 21 – 10:00
United Kingdom CPI (YoY) (Dec)
Previous: 3.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
UK inflation remains elevated relative to peers. A downside surprise could ease pressure on the BoE, while sticky inflation would keep policy restrictive and support GBP.
Thursday, January 22 – 16:30
United States GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
Previous: 3.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The GDP revision will clarify whether earlier estimates overstated U.S. growth. Downward revisions could weigh on USD and yields, while resilience may temper easing expectations.
Thursday, January 22 – 16:30
United States Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Weekly claims will be monitored for signs of labor market softening. A sustained rise could fuel dovish Fed expectations.
Thursday, January 22 – 18:00
United States Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov)
Previous: 2.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is the most important U.S. release of the week. Cooling inflation would strengthen expectations for rate cuts later in 2026, pressuring USD and supporting risk assets. Sticky readings could have the opposite effect.
Friday, January 23 – 06:00
Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Previous: 0.75% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Markets will assess whether the BoJ signals any shift away from accommodative policy. Hawkish surprises could drive sharp JPY appreciation, while policy continuity may keep the yen under pressure.
Friday, January 23 – 17:45
United States S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) – Preliminary
Previous: 52.5 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) – Preliminary
Previous: 51.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Flash PMIs will offer an early read on January activity. Strength in services would support the soft-landing narrative, while manufacturing weakness could reignite growth concerns.
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