Inflation, Consumption, and Growth Signals Shape Early-2026 Outlook

The Week Ahead: Week of January 12, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
Markets enter the week with liquidity largely restored, shifting focus toward whether cooling inflation trends can persist without materially undermining growth. U.S. CPI headlines early in the week are expected to set the tone for rate expectations, followed closely by retail sales and producer price data that will offer insight into both consumer resilience and pipeline inflation pressures.

Housing indicators, PMI surveys, and Treasury auctions will further inform views on demand conditions and financial tightening transmission. In Europe, German CPI will provide an early read on Eurozone inflation momentum, shaping expectations around ECB policy normalization later in the year. With positioning still relatively light and macro uncertainty elevated, data surprises may generate outsized moves across FX, rates, and equity markets.

Key Events to Watch:

Monday, January 12 – 21:00
U.S. 10-Year Bond Auction
Previous: 4.175% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Demand for intermediate-duration Treasuries will be closely watched for signals on inflation expectations and rate outlook. Weak bidding could push yields higher and pressure risk assets, while strong demand may support bonds and equity sentiment.

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Tuesday, January 13 – 18:30
U.S. Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
Previous: 0.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Core inflation remains the Fed’s primary focus. A firmer reading would challenge the disinflation narrative and push back expectations for policy easing, supporting USD and yields. A softer print would reinforce dovish pricing and benefit risk assets.

Tuesday, January 13 – 18:30
U.S. CPI (MoM) (Dec)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Headline CPI will reflect near-term price pressures, including energy and food components. Markets will assess whether recent moderation in inflation is broadening.

Tuesday, January 13 – 18:30
U.S. CPI (YoY) (Dec)
Previous: 2.7% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Year-on-year inflation trends will shape medium-term rate expectations. Any upside surprise could revive concerns over sticky inflation and weigh on equities.

Tuesday, January 13 – 18:00
U.S. New Home Sales (Dec)
Previous: 800K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Housing demand remains sensitive to elevated mortgage rates. Resilient sales would suggest the sector is stabilizing, while weakness may reinforce concerns over affordability and slowing household formation.

Tuesday, January 13 – 21:00
U.S. 30-Year Bond Auction
Previous: 4.773% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Long-end Treasury demand provides insight into long-term inflation and growth expectations. Poor demand could steepen the yield curve and pressure equity valuations.

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Wednesday, January 14 – 18:30
U.S. Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
Previous: 0.4% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Core retail sales offer a cleaner view of consumer demand. Strength would support the soft-landing narrative, while weakness could signal fading consumption momentum.

Wednesday, January 14 – 18:30
U.S. PPI (MoM) (Nov)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Producer prices provide an early indication of inflation pressures moving through supply chains. Subdued readings would reinforce disinflation expectations.

Wednesday, January 14 – 18:30
U.S. Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
Previous: 0.0% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
A broad gauge of consumer activity, retail sales will be key in assessing household resilience heading into 2026. Weakness could weigh on growth expectations.

Wednesday, January 14 – 18:00
U.S. Existing Home Sales (Dec)
Previous: 4.13M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Existing home sales reflect market liquidity and affordability. Continued softness would highlight the drag from restrictive financial conditions.

Wednesday, January 14 – 18:30
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Previous: –3.832M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Inventory changes often drive short-term oil price volatility. Large draws could support crude prices and inflation-sensitive assets.

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Thursday, January 15 – 10:00
U.K. GDP (MoM) (Nov)
Previous: –0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Monthly GDP offers a timely snapshot of UK economic momentum. Continued contraction would reinforce recession concerns and pressure GBP.

Thursday, January 15 – 18:30
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: 208K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Claims data will be monitored for signs of labor market softening. A sharp increase could trigger risk-off sentiment.

Thursday, January 15 – 18:30
U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)
Previous: –8.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
This regional survey provides insight into manufacturing momentum. Persistent contraction would reinforce industrial slowdown narratives.

Thursday, January 15 – 16:45
U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Previous: 52.2 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
PMI readings above 50 signal expansion. Sustained strength would support growth optimism, while a pullback could dampen sentiment.

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Friday, January 16 – 10:00
German CPI (MoM) (Dec)
Previous: –0.2% | Forecast: 0.0% | Actual: N/A
Germany’s CPI serves as an early indicator for Eurozone inflation trends. Softer inflation would reinforce expectations for ECB easing later in 2026, pressuring EUR, while upside surprises may offer temporary support.