Published: 26 December 2025,06:38
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Gold remains near multi-month highs, defying the broader risk-on equity environment, supported by U.S. dollar weakness, falling real yields, and medium-term macro uncertainty.
*Interest-rate outlook is the primary driver, with market pricing in Fed rate cuts from 2026, keeping real yields low and structurally supporting non-yielding assets like gold.
Market Summary:
Gold prices have remained underpinned near multi-month highs, defying the broader risk-on tone in equities, as investors continue to hedge against U.S. dollar weakness, falling real yields, and longer-term macro uncertainty. While easing geopolitical tensions have reduced immediate safe-haven demand, gold has drawn sustained support from monetary and currency dynamics rather than crisis-driven flows alone.
The primary driver remains the shifting interest-rate outlook. Markets are increasingly pricing in Fed rate cuts from 2026 onward following softer U.S. CPI and PPI data, reinforcing expectations that real yields will stay compressed. This environment is structurally supportive for non-yielding assets such as gold, particularly as investors reassess the long-term purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index’s slide toward multi-month lows has further boosted gold’s appeal for non-U.S. investors.
Fiscal concerns are also feeding into bullion demand. Ballooning U.S. public debt and persistent deficit spending have resurfaced as medium-term risks, raising questions around long-run currency stability and sovereign balance-sheet sustainability. Central bank buying, particularly from emerging markets seeking to diversify reserves away from the dollar, has provided an additional layer of demand, reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic hedge rather than a short-term trade.
While improved risk appetite has capped aggressive upside moves, gold has proven resilient on pullbacks, suggesting underlying demand remains intact. Any renewed volatility—whether from inflation surprises, bond market stress, or geopolitical flare-ups—could quickly revive stronger safe-haven flows. Until real yields show a sustained rebound or the Fed meaningfully pushes back against easing expectations, gold is likely to remain well supported, even alongside firm equity markets.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a constructive medium-term technical structure on the chart, with price action continuing to respect its broader bullish trend. The recent advance accelerated sharply in mid-December, propelling prices above the former consolidation range around 4,320 and confirming a bullish continuation phase.
Following this breakout, gold extended higher into the 4,480–4,500 region, where price is now consolidating just beneath the 1.272 Fibonacci extension near 4,500. This zone has emerged as a key near-term resistance, capping upside momentum for the time being. Despite several intraday probes higher, gold has so far struggled to achieve a clean acceptance above this level, resulting in a tight consolidation at elevated prices rather than a sharp rejection as a sign of underlying demand strength.
Momentum indicators support a cautiously bullish bias, albeit with signs of near-term exhaustion. The RSI is hovering around the 66–70 region, remaining above the neutral 50 level and signaling sustained upside momentum, though the inability to push decisively into overbought territory reflects a pause rather than aggressive continuation. Meanwhile, the MACD remains above the zero line, indicating positive trend momentum, but the flattening histogram suggests that upside acceleration is moderating in the short term.
Resistance Levels: 4500.00, 4560.00
Support Levels: 4450.00, 4415.00
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