Published: 23 February 2026,03:08
Daily Market Analysis New
*Gold has firmed since Friday, supported by dollar softness and rising macro uncertainty.
*The tariff ruling has added fiscal uncertainty, indirectly boosting bullion’s appeal.
*Middle East tensions and comments from President Donald Trump are sustaining safe-haven demand.
Market Summary:
Gold has edged higher since Friday, supported by a convergence of macro uncertainty, dollar softness, and renewed geopolitical risk premium. The Supreme Court decision invalidating large portions of the U.S. tariff regime acted as an important catalyst, as markets moved to price in potential fiscal strain and prolonged legal uncertainty. Strategists noted that the possible need for tariff refunds and reduced future trade revenue could increase reliance on monetary accommodation over time, a backdrop typically constructive for non-yielding assets like gold.
Safe-haven demand has also been reinforced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. President Trump indicated the U.S. is weighing a limited strike to pressure Iran into a nuclear agreement, while reports of expanded U.S. military positioning in the region have elevated tail-risk concerns. Although markets are not yet pricing an imminent conflict, the situation has been sufficient to maintain a steady underlying bid for bullion and prevent deeper pullbacks.
That said, gold’s upside has remained measured rather than explosive due to offsetting interest-rate dynamics. The Fed’s preferred core PCE gauge accelerated to 3.0% year-over-year in December, highlighting persistent inflation pressures. Several Fed officials, including Miran and Bostic, have emphasized the need to keep policy mildly restrictive, while Logan warned she is not fully convinced inflation is on a smooth path back to 2%. These signals have kept real yields from falling sharply, limiting gold’s breakout potential.
Structurally, however, the broader backdrop for precious metals remains supportive. Central bank demand continues to provide a strong floor, ETF positioning has stabilized after January’s volatility, and markets still expect eventual Fed easing into 2026. Combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and renewed fiscal questions in the U.S., gold appears biased toward gradual strength on dips, even if near-term gains remain capped by the “higher-for-longer” rate narrative. Also, traders will closely watch the upcoming speech from President Trump for fresh signals on trade policy and geopolitical posture in the near term. Any escalation in rhetoric or policy uncertainty could reinforce safe-haven flows into gold, while a more measured tone may keep bullion’s advance gradual but still biased to the upside on dips.
Technical Analysis
XAUUSD is showing a constructive shift in structure following its sharp correction from the 5,555 swing high. After bottoming in the 4,500–4,750 region, price formed a base and transitioned into a series of higher lows, signaling that selling pressure has been absorbed. The recent breakout above the 5,030 (0.5 Fibonacci) level marks a clear improvement in short-term structure, with gold now pressing toward the 0.618 retracement near 5,155 shows a technically significant resistance zone.
Momentum indicators support the bullish case. RSI has pushed above 70, reflecting strong upside momentum. While this places gold in overbought territory on the chart, it is more indicative of strength rather than an immediate reversal signal. Meanwhile, MACD remains in positive territory with expanding histogram bars and a sustained bullish crossover, reinforcing that buyers remain in control for now.
Overall, the outlook has turned constructive, with momentum favoring continuation. The key near-term test lies at the 5,155 resistance whether price can achieve acceptance above this level will determine if gold transitions from recovery mode into a broader trend resumption phase.
Resistance Levels: 5330.00, 5555.00
Support Levels: 5030.00, 4905.00
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