Published: 23 December 2025,03:13
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Gold decisively cleared $4,400, reinforcing bullish momentum as investors chased upside despite thin holiday liquidity, signaling strong conviction rather than profit-taking.
*Federal Reserve easing expectations remain the primary macro driver, with markets pricing nearly 60 bps of additional rate cuts in 2026, pushing real yields lower and weighing on the U.S. dollar.
Market Summary:
Gold extended its historic rally, breaking decisively above the $4,400 per ounce threshold, as a potent mix of easing U.S. monetary expectations, persistent U.S. dollar weakness, and escalating geopolitical tensions reinforced demand for safe-haven assets. The metal’s late-year surge underscores that investors have remained fully engaged through thin holiday liquidity, choosing to chase momentum rather than lock in profits.
At the macro level, Federal Reserve policy expectations remain the dominant driver. Softer U.S. inflation and labour data have strengthened market conviction that the Fed’s easing cycle is far from complete, with money markets now pricing close to 60 basis points of additional rate cuts in 2026. Lower real yields and a dollar that has fallen nearly 9% year-to-date have materially improved gold’s relative attractiveness, particularly for non-U.S. investors.
Geopolitical risk has added a fresh layer of support. Heightened tensions in the Caribbean following Washington’s blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers, alongside lingering uncertainty over a Russia-Ukraine settlement and renewed Middle East flashpoints, have kept safe-haven demand elevated. Notably, U.S. actions against Venezuelan “shadow fleet” vessels have been explicitly cited by analysts as a new catalyst for bullion inflows.
Structural demand remains robust. Central banks are on track to purchase roughly 850 tonnes of gold in 2025, while physically backed ETFs have recorded their largest inflows since 2020. Even as jewellery demand softens under the weight of record prices, investment flows and official sector buying continue to underpin the market.
Looking ahead, gold’s near-term bias remains upward, though stretched positioning and low year-end liquidity may amplify volatility. While some caution that central banks could eventually pivot back toward tighter rhetoric in 2026, the current combination of dovish Fed expectations, geopolitical stress, and sustained institutional demand suggests pullbacks may continue to attract buyers rather than signal trend exhaustion.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold has reasserted its bullish structure on the chart, breaking decisively higher after resolving a prolonged consolidation phase. Price has accelerated beyond the prior resistance cluster around the 4,310–4,330 zone, confirming a successful continuation move following the earlier corrective pullback. The rejection from this region has now transitioned into acceptance above it, reinforcing the broader upside bias.
Momentum indicators strongly confirm the bullish breakout. The RSI has pushed firmly into overbought territory, reflecting strong directional strength rather than exhaustion at this stage. This behavior is consistent with impulsive trend phases, where momentum remains elevated during price expansion. Meanwhile, the MACD is firmly positive with an expanding histogram and rising signal lines, indicating accelerating upside momentum and broad participation in the move.
Resistance Levels: 4500.00, 4560.00
Support Levels: 4455.00, 4420.00
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