Geopolitical Crosscurrents Drive Choppy Trade in Metal Markets
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Geopolitical Crosscurrents Drive Choppy Trade in Metal Markets

Published: 13 March 2026,07:36

Published: 13 March 2026,07:36

Daily Market Analysis New

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Key Takeaways:

*Gold hovered near $5,110 while Silver traded around $85, balancing safe-haven demand with pressure from rising yields and a stronger dollar.

*Escalating Middle East risks and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are sustaining defensive demand for precious metals.

 *A stronger U.S. Dollar Index and rising Treasury yields are limiting gains, keeping markets cautious despite longer-term bullish factors like central-bank buying.

Market Summary:

Gold and silver traded sideways over the past 24 hours, navigating a complex landscape of competing influences. Spot gold traded near $5,110 per ounce, while silver reached around $85 per ounce, higher by roughly 1.2 percent.

The advance balanced safe-haven demand stemming from escalating Middle East tensions—particularly Iran-related concerns following reports of vessels ablaze in Iraqi waters and threats to maintain the Strait of Hormuz closure—against a stronger U.S. dollar index and rising Treasury yields that weighed on prices. U.S. data releases, including steady weekly jobless claims at 213,000 and a 7.2 percent jump in January housing starts, had a muted impact, keeping trading relatively contained after earlier intraday pullbacks.

The near-term sentiment leans cautiously bullish. Technical setups for both metals remain supportive, with several analysts anticipating further upside potential—gold could test $5,500 or higher in coming weeks amid sustained central bank buying and investor demand, while silver is expected to follow modestly. BlackRock strategists note that central bank gold purchases have reshaped the demand landscape, with survey data showing 95 percent of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise in 2026 .

However, risks of a sharp corrective pullback persist. The surging U.S. dollar index, which recently hit a more-than-3.5-month high, combined with rising Treasury yields reflecting inflation concerns, creates meaningful headwinds. The marketplace has dialed back U.S. interest-rate-cut expectations, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets. Recent ETF flow data shows profit-booking after the rally, with global gold holdings declining nearly 30 tonnes in the largest weekly outflow in over two years .

Technical Analysis 

XAUUSD, H4

Gold has been confined to a narrow trading range over the past two weeks, oscillating between roughly $5,100 and $5,200 as the market searches for directional conviction. The metal has found consistent support near the $5,060 level, with each test attracting modest buying interest that has prompted minor technical rebounds.

However, these recovery attempts have lacked the momentum required to challenge the $5,200 resistance ceiling, which has proven formidable in capping upside. The inability to sustain rallies above this threshold reflects lingering bearish pressure beneath the surface, suggesting sellers remain poised to defend higher levels.

The $5,060 support zone now represents a critical technical inflection point. A sustained break below this level would confirm that the consolidation phase has resolved to the downside, likely accelerating selling pressure toward the next support target near $4,985-5,000. Conversely, a hold at this level would keep the range-bound structure intact, though the prevailing bias favors a downside resolution given the persistent failure to clear resistance.

Resistance Levels: 5152.80, 5195.20

Support Levels: 5015.00, 4917.00

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