Published: 12 March 2026,06:36
Daily Market Analysis New
*Iranian strikes on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global energy flows, pushing West Texas Intermediate above $90 and Brent Crude toward $95.
*The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield climbed to around 4.21% as investors demanded higher compensation for inflation risks from surging energy prices.
*The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened near 99.30, overtaking gold as the preferred safe-haven amid rising yields and geopolitical uncertainty.
Market Summary:
The Middle East conflict intensified sharply on March 11 as Iranian forces struck multiple oil tankers and commercial vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint handling approximately 20 percent of global oil trade. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility, citing vessels that ignored transit warnings, further escalating tensions in a waterway already seeing traffic drop by more than 80 percent with some 150 tankers anchored outside awaiting safe passage.
Crude prices reacted sharply to the attacks, with West Texas Intermediate advancing nearly 5 percent to trade above $90 per barrel while Brent crude tested levels above $95, building on gains from earlier in the week . The disruption followed a period of extreme volatility—just a day earlier, prices had plunged more than 11 percent after President Trump signaled a potential near-term end to the conflict and the U.S. Navy successfully escorted a tanker through the strait. The whipsaw action reflects markets grappling with conflicting signals: diplomatic optimism on one hand and tangible supply disruptions on the other.
The energy shock has reverberated through fixed-income markets, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to 4.21 percent, its highest level in nearly a year. This move represents a critical shift: rather than seeking safety in government bonds amid geopolitical turmoil, investors are demanding higher compensation for the inflation risk embedded in surging energy costs. The yield spike reflects a “bear steepening” driven by an inflationary risk premium, distinct from previous cycles where Fed policy drove rates higher.
The February CPI report, released concurrently, showed headline inflation at 2.4 percent annually, matching expectations. However, markets are forward-looking, recognizing that the oil price spike has yet to fully transmit into official statistics . The 10-year yield now sits at a pivotal technical level; a sustained breach above 4.20 percent could accelerate moves toward 4.50 percent, with implications for equity valuations and mortgage rates .
The U.S. dollar strengthened as a safe-haven asset, with the Dollar Index gaining 0.32 percent to trade near 99.30. The greenback’s appeal reflects both its traditional haven status during crises and the yield differential advantage as Treasury rates climb. The dollar has overtaken gold as the preferred safe haven in this conflict, given the metal’s non-yielding status amid rising rates .
The trajectory of energy prices, yields, and the dollar now hinges on two critical variables. First, the durability of shipping disruptions: if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, oil prices could push toward $100 per barrel, sustaining inflationary pressures and upward pressure on Treasury yields. Second, diplomatic developments: any credible de-escalation or successful U.S.-led escort operations restoring tanker traffic could trigger a sharp reversal in oil prices and moderate dollar gains .
Technical Analysis
The U.S. 10-year Treasury note has encountered formidable resistance near the 114.00 level, a zone that has consistently rejected upside attempts in recent sessions. The prior bullish trajectory has been definitively broken following a decline of approximately 2 percent from the recent peak, signaling a shift in market structure. The March 11 trading session saw Treasury prices under pressure following a weaker-than-expected 10-year note auction, with the benchmark yield climbing to 4.2238 percent by the close. This price action confirms the technical deterioration at the key resistance zone.
The immediate focus now rests on the critical pivotal support at 111.50. A sustained break below this level would constitute a significant technical development, likely accelerating selling pressure and opening a clear path toward the next downside target at 110.38. This level represents the next major support confluence where previous price consolidation and buyer interest have been observed.
Resistance Levels: 112.63, 113.62
Support Levels: 110.38, 109.17
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