Published: 24 December 2025,02:31
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Dollar remains under pressure during Christmas Eve trading, as weaker U.S. data reinforces expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts.
*Disappointing economic indicators, including a sharp drop in Durable Goods Orders and softer Consumer Confidence, revive concerns over slowing U.S. demand.
*Strong Q3 GDP growth offers limited relief, as investors remain focused on rising unemployment risks and cooling inflation trends.
Market Summary:
The U.S. dollar extended its losses through Christmas Eve, remaining subdued despite the holiday mood across global markets. Thin liquidity conditions did little to support the greenback, as a fresh round of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data reinforced concerns that growth momentum is cooling and that the Federal Reserve may still have room to ease policy further.
Recent figures highlighted the fragility of demand. U.S. Durable Goods Orders plunged sharply, falling 2.2% after a 0.7% gain previously and undershooting expectations for a 1.5% decline. Meanwhile, Conference Board Consumer Confidence for December dropped to 89.1 from 92.9, also missing forecasts of 91.7. The combination of softer consumption sentiment and weaker capital spending weighed on confidence in the U.S. economic outlook, reviving expectations for further rate cuts and dampening demand for the dollar.
That said, losses in the greenback were partially cushioned by an unexpectedly strong growth print. The U.S. economy expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, marking the fastest growth in two years and comfortably beating expectations of 3.3%. The strength was widely attributed to productivity gains and AI-driven investment, and notably came despite the disruption caused by the government shutdown and lingering U.S.–China tensions.
Still, a single robust GDP reading has done little to shift broader market skepticism. Investors remain more focused on the labor market, where signs of rising unemployment and easing inflation pressures suggest the economy may be losing resilience. With inflation cooling and job market risks tilting to the downside, markets continue to see scope for the Fed to maintain a dovish bias as it navigates the next phase of the monetary cycle.
Looking ahead, liquidity is expected to remain thin through the Christmas and New Year holidays, likely keeping volatility muted across major asset classes, including the dollar. However, traders remain wary that reduced market depth could amplify price swings if large players reposition into year-end.As markets look toward 2026, attention is expected to shift back to larger structural themes—the next monetary policy cycle, AI-driven growth dynamics, and renewed global trade tensions—all of which could set the stage for sharper moves once holiday conditions fade.
Technical Analysis
The dollar index is trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level of 98.10. With potential breakout below the recent support, we could be epecting there might be chances for dollar to continue extend its losses, next target we could eye on should be on 97.55. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 33, entering the oversold territory, suggesting the index might be experiencing some technical correction. If technical correction happen, we could be expecting the dollar index might likely rebound and re-test over resisatnce leve of 98.10.
Resistance Levels: 98.10, 98.55
Support Levels: 97.55, 97.00
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