Published: 30 March 2026,06:18
Daily Market Analysis New
*Dollar strengthens as Treasury yields rise on inflation concerns
*Oil above $100 fuels expectations of prolonged monetary tightening
*Economists raise inflation forecasts, trim growth outlook
Market Summary:
The U.S. dollar remained firm, supported by a rise in Treasury yields as markets reacted to renewed inflation concerns driven by surging oil prices.
With crude oil prices climbing back above the $100-per-barrel mark, fears of supply-driven inflation have intensified, prompting economists to revise their outlook for the U.S. economy. Inflation expectations have been adjusted higher, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index now projected to rise 3.1% on average this year, up from a prior estimate of 2.6%.
At the same time, growth forecasts have been modestly downgraded. U.S. gross domestic product is expected to expand by 2.3% this year, compared with an earlier estimate of 2.5%, reflecting softer consumer spending and subdued job creation in recent months.
The inflationary backdrop has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer. Elevated yields have, in turn, provided support to the dollar, with the dollar index hovering near key resistance levels.
Meanwhile, gold prices managed to post their first weekly gain since the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, supported by dip-buying and renewed safe-haven demand.
While rising interest rates typically weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold, the broader macro environment — characterized by geopolitical risks and supply-led inflation concerns — continues to underpin longer-term demand for the precious metal.
In the near term, gold is likely to remain influenced by two opposing forces: upward pressure from higher yields and monetary tightening expectations, versus underlying support from geopolitical uncertainty and risk aversion.
Technical Analysis
Gold remains supported after a breakout above the 4,410.00 Fibonacci resistance, but has since entered a technical pullback, suggesting a near-term consolidation phase.
Price action is likely to trade within a range between 4,410.00 support and 4,600.00 resistance. Momentum indicators are turning softer, with the MACD expanding to the downside and the RSI at 45 below the midline, indicating growing short-term bearish pressure.
A confirmed break below 4,410.00 would expose the next downside level at 4,305.00. Conversely, if buying momentum resumes, gold could retest 4,600.00 resistance, maintaining its broader bullish structure.
Resistance Levels: 4600.00, 4755.00
Support Levels: 4410.00, 4305.00
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