Published: 13 February 2026,07:43
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Crude oil ended consolidation and moved lower, pressured by bearish supply data.
*U.S. crude inventories surged by 8.53 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations.
*IEA downgraded global demand outlook, warning of slower growth and a potential surplus.
*US–Israel–Iran talks remain key geopolitical catalysts for near-term price direction.
Crude oil prices fell after a prolonged period of consolidation, as fresh bearish catalysts emerged and shifted market sentiment. The primary trigger came from U.S. inventory data, where the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a sharp increase of 8.53 million barrels in crude stockpiles. The build significantly exceeded market expectations, which had anticipated a modest draw. The surprise accumulation signaled weaker near-term demand or stronger supply conditions, putting immediate downward pressure on prices.
Further weighing on sentiment was a revised outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency stated that global oil demand growth is expected to slow more than previously projected this year, forecasting a sizable surplus despite supply outages earlier in January. The IEA highlighted the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles as a structural factor that could dampen long-term oil consumption growth, reinforcing concerns over demand sustainability.
On the supply side, additional pressure came from Russia. Seaborne exports of Russian oil products rose 0.7% month-on-month in January to 9.12 million metric tons, supported by strong fuel production and seasonally weaker domestic demand. The increase in exports suggests continued resilience in Russian energy flows, contributing to global supply availability.
Looking ahead, geopolitical developments remain a crucial wildcard. Talks involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran are expected to be a key highlight for the week. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that President Donald Trump appeared to be shaping a potential framework to address tensions with Iran over its nuclear program. However, Trump indicated that no definitive agreement has yet been reached, and negotiations with Tehran will continue.
With rising inventories, softer demand projections, expanding Russian exports, and ongoing geopolitical negotiations, crude oil remains highly sensitive to incoming catalysts. Market participants are likely to stay cautious as they assess whether supply-side risks or demand concerns will dominate the next directional move.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil prices are trading lower and are currently testing the immediate support level at 62.75. Market focus remains on whether this level can hold. A decisive breakout below 62.75 would signal further downside pressure, potentially extending losses toward the next support at 61.65.
Momentum indicators are reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD shows increasing downside momentum, while the RSI is hovering near 39, remaining below the neutral 50 midline. This technical setup suggests that sellers remain in control, and a confirmed breakdown could accelerate the decline.
However, if bearish momentum fails to sustain and support at 62.75 holds firm, a technical rebound may emerge. In that scenario, prices could recover toward the next resistance level at 64.25, with stronger resistance seen at 65.80.
Resistance Levels: 64.25, 65.80
Support Levels: 62.75, 61.65
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