Published: 20 February 2026,07:53
Weekly Outlook New
The Week Ahead: Week of February 23, 2026 (GMT+3)
Weekly Market Preview
The upcoming week begins under reduced liquidity conditions as several major markets observe public holidays, including China, Japan, and Russia. Thinner participation could amplify volatility, particularly in FX and commodities, as positioning adjusts into the final trading days of February.
Attention will center on U.S. consumer sentiment, German growth data, and inflation releases from both sides of the Atlantic. With markets closely monitoring whether early-2026 momentum remains intact, mid-week European data and Friday’s U.S. producer prices may shape expectations around inflation persistence and central bank flexibility.
As month-end flows approach, any data surprise could generate outsized moves in rates, currencies, and equity indices.
Key Events to Watch:
Tuesday, February 24 – 18:00
U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)
Previous: 84.5 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Consumer confidence will provide an updated view of household sentiment amid evolving labor market and inflation dynamics. A rebound in confidence would signal resilience in consumer expectations, supporting equities and the dollar. A weaker reading could reinforce concerns that elevated prices and tighter financial conditions are weighing on demand, potentially pressuring risk assets and supporting bonds.
Wednesday, February 25 – 10:00
German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: 0.3% | Actual: N/A
Germany’s quarterly growth reading will indicate whether Europe’s largest economy stabilized into year-end. Confirmation of expansion would support the euro and reduce immediate recession concerns. A downside surprise could renew worries about stagnation across the Eurozone and weigh on EUR crosses.
Wednesday, February 25 – 13:00
Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jan)
Previous: 1.7% | Forecast: 1.7% | Actual: N/A
Eurozone inflation trends remain critical for ECB policy expectations. Stable or lower inflation would reinforce the disinflation narrative and keep easing discussions alive. An upside surprise, however, could challenge dovish pricing and push European yields higher.
Thursday, February 26 – 16:30
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Weekly claims continue to serve as a timely gauge of labor market stability. A steady trend would reinforce confidence that employment conditions remain orderly. A notable rise could signal accelerating labor market softening, potentially supporting a dovish repricing in rates markets.
Friday, February 27 – 16:00
German CPI (MoM) (Feb) – Preliminary
Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Germany’s preliminary February inflation reading will provide an early signal for broader Eurozone price pressures. A stronger-than-expected print could lift the euro and temper ECB easing expectations. Softer data would reinforce disinflation momentum and weigh on EUR.
Friday, February 27 – 16:30
U.S. PPI (MoM) (Jan)
Previous: 0.5% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Producer prices will be closely watched as an upstream inflation indicator ahead of future CPI and PCE readings. Persistent price pressures could push yields higher and support the dollar. A softer print would strengthen confidence that inflation is cooling further, supporting equities and rate-cut expectations.
Friday, February 27 – 17:45
U.S. Chicago PMI (Feb)
Previous: 54.0 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Chicago PMI provides a forward-looking snapshot of regional manufacturing activity. Continued expansion above 50 would reinforce growth resilience and support risk sentiment. A decline toward contraction territory could revive concerns about slowing industrial momentum heading into March.
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