Published: 16 January 2026,00:43
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USDCAD, H4:
The USDCAD pair is exhibiting signs of a potential near-term correction following a period of strong bullish momentum that delivered gains of nearly 2%. The technical structure has deteriorated with a decisive break below the pair’s prior uptrend support line. This breakdown is compounded by the formation of a double-top pattern, a classic reversal structure, suggesting buying interest has been exhausted at recent highs.
Adding credence to a shift in momentum, a bearish divergence has emerged on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator. While the pair reached higher price peaks, the MACD failed to confirm these highs and has continued to trend lower, indicating weakening underlying bullish momentum.
The immediate technical focus is the support level at 1.3855. A sustained break below this level would confirm the bearish signals from the pattern and divergence, likely triggering a deeper technical pullback. Initial downside targets would then align with the measured move of the double-top pattern.
The confluence of a trendline break, a double-top formation, and a bearish momentum divergence has shifted the near-term risk to the downside for USDCAD. The bearish scenario is contingent upon a break of the 1.3855 support. Failure to hold this level would validate the correction, while a rebound from it could lead to a period of consolidation before the next directional move.
Resistance Levels: 1.3920, 1.3975
Support Levels: 1.3857, 1.3805
XRP, H4
XRP staged a powerful recovery from its late-year low of 1.8123, rallying approximately 33% to a two-month high of 2.4170. Following this advance, the asset entered a corrective phase but successfully found support above the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire rally, located at 2.0530. This successful prior defense of deep Fibonacci support had suggested the broader bullish trajectory from the December low remained structurally intact.
The current price action, however, indicates this bullish momentum has stalled. The asset is now retesting the same 2.0530 Fibonacci support, presenting a clear technical inflection point. A failure to hold above this level on a daily closing basis would signify a breakdown of the bullish structure established since the December low, shifting the near-term bias to bearish.
XRP is at a decisive technical crossroads. The bullish trend is contingent upon a firm hold of the 2.0530 Fibonacci support. A sustained bounce from this level could rejuvenate the uptrend for a retest of higher resistances. Conversely, a confirmed breakdown would invalidate the prior bullish structure, indicating a failure of the recovery rally and likely opening a path toward the 1.95 support zone. Traders should monitor price action at this level for the next directional signal.
Resistance Levels: 2.1230, 2.2000
Support Levels: 2.0530, 1.9500
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