Published: 26 January 2026,05:57
Daily Market Analysis New
*AUDUSD hit 0.6852, its highest since Nov 2024, after unemployment fell to 4.1% and jobs surged +65.2k, reinforcing a hawkish tilt for the RBA.
*Robust Australian data contrasts with a dovish-leaning Fed and a still-weak JPY, allowing the Aussie to capitalize on broad USD and funding-currency softness.
*A sustained hold above this level signals a structural shift higher, with 0.6900 in sight ahead of the February RBA meeting, barring a sharp risk-off turn.
Market Summary:
Amidst a volatile global currency landscape pressured by U.S.-EU geopolitical tensions, the Australian dollar has emerged as a standout performer, with the AUDUSD pair advancing to 0.6931—a level not seen since September 2024. The currency’s resilience is primarily driven by a much stronger-than-anticipated domestic labor market report, which showed unemployment falling to 4.1% and employment surging by 65.2k, sharply reversing a prior decline.
The focus now shifts decisively to the upcoming Australian Consumer Price Index data. The previous quarterly print showed inflation rebounding to a yearly high of 3.2%. A further acceleration in this week’s release would significantly reinforce the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain a hawkish, data-dependent stance, especially as other major central banks signal a more patient approach. Such an outcome would likely extend the AUD’s outperformance, particularly against currencies facing structural headwinds, such as the geopolitically pressured U.S. dollar and the growth-challenged euro.
The Australian dollar’s strength is well-founded in robust domestic fundamentals, setting it apart from G10 peers. The near-term trajectory hinges almost entirely on the inflation print. A result at or above expectations will validate the current hawkish RBA narrative and likely propel the AUD toward the 0.7000 handle. A miss, however, could trigger a corrective pullback as markets reassess the timing of any potential policy tightening. The balance of risks is tilted to the upside, contingent on the data confirming persistent price pressures.
Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair has confirmed a significant bearish deterioration, declining nearly 4% from its December peak and breaching the critical multi-test support level at 0.6730. This breakdown invalidates the prior consolidation structure and establishes a clear near-term downtrend.
While the bearish bias is dominant, the rapid descent has created one or more Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)—imbalance zones where price may revisit to fill inefficiency. A technical rebound into these FVG areas is a common counter-trend reaction. The key for trend continuity is that any such rebound remains contained below the upper boundary of the most relevant FVG. A sustained break back above this boundary would signal the rebound is gaining excessive strength and could threaten the integrity of the new downtrend.
The breakdown below 0.6730 shifts the structure to bearish. Traders should anticipate a potential technical rebound to fill the FVG, which would represent a selling opportunity within the broader downtrend provided price rejects from the FVG zone. The bearish outlook would be invalidated by a sustained recovery above the FVG’s upper boundary, which would instead suggest a false breakdown and potential for a more prolonged consolidation or reversal.
Resistance Levels: 1.7300, 1.7500
Support Levels: 1.7065, 1.6810
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