Published: 28 January 2026,08:01
Daily Market Analysis New
*Strong labor data and a rebound in inflation have reinforced expectations that the RBA will maintain a restrictive stance, boosting the Australian dollar.
*With the RBA leaning hawkish while the Fed and ECB are seen turning dovish, AUD is benefiting from widening monetary policy divergence.
*Fundamentally supported, AUDUSD is eyeing 0.6950 and potentially 0.7000, provided risk sentiment and commodity prices remain stable.
Market Summary:
The Australian dollar continues to demonstrate notable resilience and strength within the G10 currency complex, a trend anchored in a decisive shift in domestic monetary policy expectations. The foundation for this move was laid late last year when the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes explicitly removed the prospect of near-term policy easing, adopting a firmly data-dependent stance. This week, the supporting data arrived with force, compelling a hawkish repricing of the RBA’s trajectory.
Critical labor market figures, including a strong employment change and a lower unemployment rate, initially underscored the economy’s resilience. This momentum was decisively amplified by the latest Consumer Price Index report, which showed inflation accelerating to 3.6% year-on-year, a significant rebound from the previous 3.0% reading. This hotter-than-anticipated print has materially increased market confidence that the RBA will maintain, and potentially signal, a more restrictive policy stance in the first quarter of 2026, contrasting sharply with the perceived dovish pivots being priced for the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.
The Australian dollar’s outperformance is fundamentally driven and likely to persist in the near term. The currency is benefiting from a unique confluence of robust domestic data and a central bank pre-committed to a reactive, hawkish posture. This positions the AUD favorably against peers mired in political uncertainty or economic slowdown. The immediate technical path for AUDUSD points toward a test of the 0.6950 level, with potential to extend gains toward 0.7000 if forthcoming RBA communication validates the market’s newly hawkish interpretation. Sustained strength is contingent on global risk sentiment remaining stable enough for carry-trade dynamics to function and commodity prices to hold their ground.
Technical Analysis
The GBPAUD pair has confirmed a bearish structural breakdown, decisively breaching the critical psychological support level at 2.0000. This violation has exacerbated the prevailing selling pressure within a broader downtrend trajectory. The pair has since entered a phase of extreme sideways consolidation, a typical pattern following an intense directional move as the market digests the new lower trading range.
The immediate technical focus is on the boundaries of this consolidation. A conclusive breakdown below the lower limit of this range would provide a strong bearish signal, suggesting the continuation of the primary downtrend and likely triggering a new wave of selling pressure.
An intriguing technical nuance is present in the momentum indicators. While the Relative Strength Index remains suppressed below its midline, consistent with a weak price structure, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has generated a bullish golden cross at a depressed level. This signal typically suggests a loss of bearish momentum and potential for a counter-trend bounce, creating a divergence from the raw price action’s bearish bias.
The primary structure remains bearish following the breakdown below 2.0000. The consolidation represents a pause, and a break below its support would reaffirm the downtrend. The bullish golden cross in the MACD introduces caution, suggesting that while the trend is down, bearish momentum may be exhausting in the very near term, raising the possibility of a technical rebound. The overall bias remains bearish unless the pair can reclaim ground above the 2.0000 resistance level. Traders should prioritize confirmation from price action—a breakdown from consolidation—over the conflicting indicator signal for directional conviction.
Resistance Levels: 2.0000, 2.0500
Support Levels: 1.9600, 1.9125
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
