A High-Stakes Week for Global Markets

The Week Ahead: Week of December 15, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
Over the week, the market continued to digest several crucial developments, with the Federal Reserve remaining the key driver of sentiment. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50–3.75%, sparking notable volatility across major asset classes. Additionally, the majority of FOMC members now appear to lean toward a more dovish stance—especially after the U.S. government shutdown was resolved, offering a clearer picture of the broader U.S. economic outlook.

In the upcoming week, volatility is expected to persist as markets prepare for a series of major U.S. data releases. The long-awaited U.S. jobs report—Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate—will be the main focus for global traders. After a lengthy delay caused by the shutdown, this will be one of the most anticipated datasets of early December.

Following the U.S. NFP report, markets will shift toward another critical lineup of CPI releases from the UK, EU, and U.S. These inflation prints will help clarify whether central banks intend to maintain, slow, or accelerate their respective monetary policy paths. Alongside the data, more than one major central bank meeting is scheduled—including the Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan—making this one of the heaviest macro weeks of the month.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, December 16 – 21:30
US Nonfarm Payrolls  (Nov)
Actual: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Previous: 119K
With the U.S. government shutdown now over, this will be the first release of the crucial U.S. jobs report. Recent U.S. economic data has shown increasingly pessimistic signs, making this NFP reading highly anticipated.

• If the data comes in better-than-expected, the dollar could rebound, while gold—currently testing record highs—may face pressure.
  
• A weaker reading may reinforce expectations of continued Fed easing.

Tuesday, December 16 – 21:30

US Unemployment Rate (Nov)
Actual: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Previous: 4.4%
With weekly jobless claims posting their largest increase in nearly 4.5 years, the unemployment rate carries downside risk. NFP alone is insufficient to determine the U.S. outlook—Unemployment Rate should be weighted equally, as both indicators together provide stronger trading signals.

Wednesday, December 17 – 15:00
UK CPI (YoY) (Nov)
Actual: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Previous: 3.6%
UK CPI will serve as a major catalyst ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday. The latest UK budget announcement may also influence inflation in the short term, making this release particularly significant for MPC decision-making.

Wednesday, December 17 – 18:00

EU CPI (YoY) (Nov)
Actual: N/A | Forecast: 2.2% | Previous: 2.1%
EU CPI remains a key indicator for ECB policy direction. Ongoing trade tensions, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and energy market volatility may continue to shape the region’s inflation trajectory. Market participants will monitor these developments closely.

Thursday, December 18 – 20:00

BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
Previous: 4.00% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Bank of England may adopt a similar policy path to the Federal Reserve, with economists widely expecting a 25 bps rate cut to 3.75%. If CPI shows further cooling, it strengthens the case for BoE easing and would offer clearer guidance on the UK’s monetary direction..

Thursday, December 18 – 20:00
ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)
Previous: 2.15% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Unlike some central banks, the ECB is still seen by many economists as likely to maintain or potentially raise rates next year, even as others—including the U.S.—move toward easing cycles. If the ECB turns more hawkish, the euro could outperform relative to other major currencies.

Thursday, December 18 – 21:30
US CPI (MoM) (Nov)
Previous: 4.00% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Following the Fed’s rate cut, investors will shift focus back to U.S. inflation. With rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China, CPI results will be critical in shaping expectations for future economic and policy conditions.

Friday, December 19 – 11:00
BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Q4)
Previous: 0.50% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Economists now anticipate that the BoJ may raise interest rates by 25 bps to 0.75%, citing persistent yen weakness and concerns over imported inflation. In the latest Reuters poll (Dec 2–9), 90% of economists expect a rate hike. However, rising geopolitical tensions between Japan and China continue to weigh on sentiment, creating uncertainty over Japan’s economic outlook along with monetary decisions from the Bank of Japan.