Published: 25 March 2026,06:52
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Dollar index edges lower amid declining U.S. Treasury yields
*Oil prices tumble on optimism over U.S.–Iran negotiations
*Easing inflation expectations support a more dovish Fed outlook
The U.S. dollar weakened modestly, with the dollar index — which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies — retreating as U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline.
The move comes as oil prices tumbled on renewed optimism surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran, easing concerns over supply disruptions and inflationary pressures.
According to reports, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have been working on a framework aimed at securing a ceasefire and initiating broader negotiations under a proposed “15-point plan.”
While details remain limited, the plan is believed to outline a comprehensive roadmap covering key areas such as:
The proposal is designed to create a structured path toward stabilizing geopolitical tensions while addressing long-standing concerns between both nations.
The easing in oil prices has helped temper inflation expectations, leading to a pullback in Treasury yields and reducing the relative appeal of the dollar. Lower yields typically diminish demand for the greenback, particularly against higher-yielding or risk-sensitive currencies.
The Federal Reserve has reiterated that future monetary policy decisions will remain data-dependent, particularly on inflation trends. Should inflationary pressures continue to ease, markets increasingly expect the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance.
Geopolitical developments remain in sharp focus, with U.S. officials indicating that a potential agreement with Iran could be reached within five days. Donald Trump expressed confidence in resolving the supply disruption concerns, further supporting market sentiment.
On the economic data front, recent indicators delivered mixed signals. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4, exceeding expectations of 51.5, suggesting continued expansion in the industrial sector. However, Services PMI missed forecasts, printing at 51.1 versus expectations of 52.0, pointing to some moderation in service sector momentum.
With a relatively light economic calendar in the coming weeks, analysts note that the near-term direction of the dollar is likely to be driven more by geopolitical headlines than macroeconomic data.
Markets will continue to closely monitor developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations for clearer trading signals.
Technical Analysis
The dollar index is trading lower, currently testing the key support at 99.15.
Momentum remains bearish, with MACD expanding to the downside and RSI at 45, indicating continued selling pressure. A confirmed break below 99.15 could open the path toward the next support at 98.55.
However, if the index holds above this level, it may enter a consolidation phase, with potential for a rebound toward 99.70 resistance.
Resistance Levels: 99.70, 100.30
Support Levels: 99.15, 98.55
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