Published: 11 March 2026,06:49
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil prices remain extremely volatile, swinging between $80 and $100 as traders weigh Trump’s “mission accomplished” rhetoric against a 6.7 million barrel-per-day supply hole.
*Middle East production collapses by 6%, with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait forced to cut output as storage tanks reach capacity due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
*UAE’s largest refinery (Ruwais) remains offline following a precision drone strike on Tuesday, cutting off critical exports of gasoline and jet fuel.
*G7 and IEA consider historic reserve release, as global leaders prepare to flood the market with emergency oil to prevent a catastrophic “stagflation” trap.
Market Summary:
The global energy market is currently trapped between optimistic political headlines and a grim physical reality. While President Trump sparked a sharp price retreat on Tuesday by claiming the war is “ahead of schedule” and could end “very soon,” the actual supply of oil remains in a chokehold. The Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most vital oil artery—remains virtually at a standstill. Bloomberg reports that the four largest Gulf producers have now collectively slashed their output by 6.7 million barrels a day because they simply have nowhere left to store the oil they cannot export.
The crisis intensified Tuesday evening following an Iranian drone strike on the Ruwais Industrial Complex in Abu Dhabi. ADNOC, the UAE’s state oil giant, was forced to halt operations at its massive refinery—the world’s fourth-largest—as a precaution. With major refineries in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia now facing direct attacks, the “fear premium” is shifting from shipping delays to the permanent destruction of energy infrastructure. This has created a “stagflation” scare: a situation where the economy slows down (bad jobs data) but energy costs remain painfully high.
In response, the Group of Seven (G7) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) held an extraordinary virtual meeting. Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, confirmed that member nations are discussing a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). By releasing millions of barrels from emergency stockpiles, the G7 hopes to “break the fever” of the market and stabilize fuel prices until the U.S. Navy can establish safe passage through the Strait.
The market is currently a “tug-of-war” between Trump’s promises of a quick victory and the IRGC’s ability to disrupt the global economy. Investors are skeptical of a ceasefire as long as the Strait remains closed and Iran’s new leadership vows to continue the fight. For the coming days, the $80 floor in oil will likely be tested; if the G7 announces a massive reserve release, we could see a further drop, but any fresh strikes on Gulf refineries will send prices back toward triple digits instantly.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil is currently maintaining a bearish bias on the H4 timeframe after a rejection at the 85.00 resistance level. The technical indicators confirm this downward shift, as the MACD displays a contraction in bullish momentum while the RSI at 42 is executing a bearish crossover (death cross), signaling that sellers are reclaiming control of the price action. If this momentum persists, the next structural objective for the commodity is the support floor at 77.30, with a further extension possible toward 69.75 if selling pressure intensifies.
Conversely, the current bearish setup would be invalidated if the market fails to sustain a break below recent intraday lows. A sudden influx of buying volume could spark a corrective rebound to re-test the 84.95 resistance level. Should the price successfully reclaim this zone, it would shift the intraday focus back toward the secondary resistance at 94.80, potentially turning the current retracement into a broader consolidation phase rather than a sustained downtrend.
Resistance Levels: 84.95, 94.80
Support Levels: 77.30, 69.75
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