Published: 11 March 2026,06:39
Daily Market Analysis New
*The Australian Dollar surged to its strongest level since May 2022 near 0.7149, outperforming G10 peers on hawkish policy expectations.
*Comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted persistent inflation risks, prompting markets to reprice potential rate hikes.
*Near-term direction for AUD/USD will hinge on the U.S. CPI data and oil volatility linked to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Market Summary:
The Australian dollar emerged as the strongest performer among G10 currencies in the March 10 trading session, driving AUDUSD to its highest level since May 2022 near 0.7149. The catalyst was hawkish commentary from Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser just one week ahead of the March 17 policy meeting .
Hauser emphasized that inflation remains “too high” at 3.8 percent headline and 3.4 percent underlying, both comfortably above the 2-3 percent target band. He flagged upside risks from surging crude prices tied to the Iran conflict, particularly regarding Strait of Hormuz disruptions, alongside limited spare capacity in the economy supported by 2.6 percent GDP growth and resilient labor demand . The deputy governor noted there will be “very serious discussions” at next week’s meeting and that rising prices make this debate more difficult.
The remarks triggered an immediate repricing in rate expectations. Futures-implied odds of a near-term hike jumped to approximately 35 percent for March and 59-65 percent for the second quarter, with markets now pricing around 58 basis points of tightening for 2026. NAB economists warn that absent a quick reversal in oil prices, inflation could peak above 5 percent in the second quarter, adding pressure for further policy action .
Policy divergence remains the primary structural tailwind. The RBA’s hawkish tilt contrasts with more dovish stances elsewhere, reinforcing the Aussie’s yield appeal. Australia’s terms of trade remain favorable and China’s stabilization efforts provide additional fundamental support .
The pair faces twin challenges from Middle East headline volatility driving crude swings and today’s U.S. February CPI release. An undershoot in core inflation could support risk sentiment and extend AUD gains, while an overshoot might weigh on the risk-sensitive currency . The recent pullback in oil prices following Trump’s de-escalation comments has provided some relief, though the situation remains fluid.
Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair has sustained a robust rally, advancing more than 10 percent from its November 2025 low, and is now trading at multi-year highs near 0.7149. The latest price action shows the pair has gathered momentum, breaking decisively above its downtrend channel and now challenging strong resistance at the 0.7145 mark.
A sustained break above 0.7145 would constitute a strong bullish breakout signal, confirming the resumption of the broader uptrend and opening a path toward the next targets at 0.7200 and 0.7294, the June 2022 high. Multiple technical analyses identify this level as the critical threshold for the pair’s next directional move.
The constructive technical setup is reinforced by supportive momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index is trending higher, reflecting building buying pressure, though it has not yet reached overextended levels that would signal exhaustion. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence has turned positive, confirming the shift in underlying momentum.
Resistance Levels:0.7220, 0.7300
Support Levels: 0.7030, 0.6945
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