Published: 10 March 2026,07:35
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil sees historic intraday volatility, gapping from a high of $119/bbl down to $80/bbl following a surprise press conference from President Trump.
*“The war is very complete”: Trump declares U.S. military objectives in Iran largely achieved “ahead of schedule,” sparking a massive sell-off in the geopolitical risk premium.
*G7 Finance Ministers signal emergency action, stating they are prepared to coordinate a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release to stabilize global energy markets.
*The “Hormuz Gap” persists: Despite the optimistic rhetoric, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to Western tankers, with no concrete security plan in place to restart traffic.
Market Summary:
Energy markets are currently caught in a tug-of-war between political optimism and physical reality. On Monday, oil prices initially exploded by over 20%, hitting triple digits for the first time since 2022. This “panic buying” was driven by the fear that a month-long conflict under Iran’s new hardline leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, would permanently sever the world’s most important oil artery. However, prices collapsed just as quickly after President Trump addressed reporters at Doral Miami, stating that the U.S. and Israel had “decimated” Iran’s military infrastructure and that the “short-term excursion” was nearing its end.
The G7 Finance Ministers added to the downward pressure on prices by issuing a rare joint statement. Meeting virtually on Monday, the group emphasized their readiness to tap into national strategic stockpiles if supply disruptions continue. While France and other members noted they are “not there yet” in terms of an actual release, the mere threat of millions of barrels hitting the market helped cool the “panic” that had pushed Brent crude toward $120 earlier in the session.
The Reality on the Water:
Despite the $20-per-barrel drop, the physical situation in the Middle East remains critical. The Strait of Hormuz is still a “no-go zone” for most commercial vessels. While Trump mentioned the U.S. is “thinking about taking over” the Strait to guarantee safe passage, ship-tracking data shows a 70% reduction in traffic compared to pre-war levels. Only a handful of vessels—primarily those signaling “Chinese Owner” or other neutral affiliations—have successfully transited the waterway, leaving the vast majority of Gulf oil stranded in storage.
The Bottom Line:
Wall Street is now struggling to determine if the war is truly over or if it has simply entered a new, more dangerous phase of economic blockade. While the President’s comments provided a temporary reprieve for energy consumers, oil prices remain highly sensitive to any news of a “failed restart” in shipping. Traders are now awaiting a finalized plan for U.S. Navy escorts; until tankers begin moving safely through the Strait, the floor for oil prices is expected to remain significantly higher than pre-war levels.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil is currently testing a vital “line in the sand” at the 85.50 support level. After the recent sharp decline from triple-digit prices, the technical indicators are flashing early signs of seller exhaustion. The RSI at 34 is hovering just above the official oversold threshold, while the MACD histogram is beginning to contract, suggesting that bearish momentum is fading. This setup often precedes a “relief rally” or technical bounce as shorts begin to take profits near this structural floor.
If the 85.50 level holds, we can expect a corrective recovery toward the immediate resistance at 94.80, where the market will likely reassess the broader trend. However, traders must remain cautious; a decisive 4-hour candle close below 85.50 would invalidate the rebound thesis and likely accelerate a move toward the 77.30 support zone. The current price action suggests the market is searching for a bottoming formation before any sustained move higher.
Resistance Levels: 94.80, 103.65
Support Levels: 85.50, 77.30
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