Published: 9 March 2026,06:25
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil prices skyrocket over 20%, with Brent crude and WTI both clearing the $100/barrel mark for the first time since 2022.
*Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader, succeeding his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The move signals a hardline “dynastic” shift and a commitment to continued military confrontation.
*UAE and Kuwait begin production cuts as a direct result of the Strait of Hormuz closure. With no way to export, regional storage tanks have reached maximum capacity.
Market Summary:
Energy markets opened with “panic in the veins” this Monday, as the conflict between the U.S.-Israeli coalition and Iran entered a dangerous new chapter. Crude oil prices jumped aggressively—gaining more than 25% since the war began—as the realization of a long-term supply void set in. The primary driver is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint responsible for 20% of global oil. Iran has intensified its threats, warning that any vessel attempting to transit without permission will be targeted, a threat backed by four nights of consecutive missile and drone attacks on regional ports like Fujairah.
In Tehran, the political vacuum was filled as the Assembly of Experts officially named Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. This appointment is seen as a “resounding blow” to diplomatic hopes, as the younger Khamenei is closely tied to the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) and the nation’s most aggressive military strategies. Under his leadership, Iran has expanded its “economic war,” targeting oil infrastructure in neighboring countries and forcing regional producers into a corner.
The crisis has now moved from “shipping delays” to “production halts.” Major producers, including the United Arab Emirates (ADNOC) and Kuwait Petroleum Corp, have begun shutting down oil fields and refineries. Because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil is backing up in the system; with storage facilities in the Gulf expected to be completely full within three weeks, these nations have no choice but to stop pumping. This “forced cutback” is removing millions of barrels from the global market daily, further fueling the price spike.
The Bottom Line:
President Trump has attempted to break the paralysis by launching a $20 billion federal reinsurance plan to cover “war risk” for commercial ships. While the administration has also promised potential U.S. Navy escorts, the Pentagon has yet to release a specific timetable or “rules of engagement” for such missions. Until tankers actually begin moving under military protection, the world remains in the grip of a major energy crisis. Investors are braced for $120+ oil if the blockade is not broken by the end of the week.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil is currently experiencing a massive surge on the H4 timeframe, driven by high-intensity momentum that has pushed the commodity into a critical testing phase at the 112.10 resistance level. The technical structure is overwhelmingly bullish as the MACD shows a vertical expansion in its histogram bars, signaling that the current buying pressure is at its peak. However, the RSI at 86 has reached extreme “overbought” territory, a level rarely sustained without a sharp corrective or consolidative pause.
If the bulls manage a decisive 4-hour close above 112.10, the absence of immediate technical friction could see prices gravitate toward the historical psychological resistance of 122.00. On the other hand, the extreme RSI reading suggests that the market is “overextended.” Should the momentum begin to plateau at this ceiling, a technical correction is likely to trigger a rapid mean-reversion move toward the 98.40 support zone. Traders should watch for a potential “blow-off top” signal before committing to further upside at these levels.
Resistance Levels: 112.10, 112.10
Support Levels: 98.40, 87.75
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