Published: 6 March 2026,08:13
Daily Market Analysis New
*The U.S.–Israel campaign against Iran continues to escalate, with Donald Trump signaling the war could last weeks, keeping geopolitical risk elevated.
*Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged nearly 90%, raising fears of major global oil supply disruption.
*Following the death of Ali Khamenei, succession uncertainty—potentially involving Mojtaba Khamenei—adds further geopolitical instability.
Market Summary:
As the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its seventh day, intensified bombardments across Tehran, Sanandaj, and Parand have pushed the death toll above 1,000, with President Trump signaling the operation could last four weeks and Israeli leaders ruling out a multi-year timeframe. The conflict’s duration remains highly uncertain, with markets increasingly pricing a protracted confrontation that keeps supply risks elevated.
The Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz have emerged as the critical flashpoints for global oil markets. Tanker traffic through the strait—which handles approximately 20 percent of global oil supply—has dropped by nearly 90 percent since hostilities began, with dozens of vessels stranded, diverted, or awaiting instructions. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to prevent any oil from leaving the region, and actual attacks on tankers have compounded fears of sustained supply disruption. WTI crude has surged to its highest level since 2023, while Brent is testing the $85.00 mark, reflecting the market’s assessment of a meaningful and lasting supply shock.
Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, has begun halting operations at its largest oil fields as storage tanks fill up, while Kuwait has reduced refinery processing rates. QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on LNG exports, with restoration to normal levels expected to take at least a month. JPMorgan analysts estimate that approximately 3.3 million barrels per day of oil could be lost by the eighth day of conflict if the strait remains blockaded.
The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has triggered a leadership succession process that carries significant implications for the conflict’s trajectory. Mojtaba Khamenei, the former supreme leader’s son, has emerged as the leading candidate to succeed his father, with Iranian officials confirming he is under serious consideration. President Trump has explicitly rejected this outcome, stating that Khamenei’s son is “a lightweight” and demanding a personal say in selecting Iran’s next leader—comparing it to U.S. involvement in Venezuela’s post-Maduro transition. Trump warned that choosing the wrong successor would drag the U.S. back to war “in five years,” injecting further uncertainty into any potential resolution.
The combination of sustained military operations, effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and contentious leadership transition suggests the war risk premium will remain embedded in oil prices for the foreseeable future. While the U.S. has proposed naval escorts and insurance guarantees to restore shipping confidence, traders remain skeptical that flows can resume meaningfully in the near term . Until tangible de-escalation materializes, crude is likely to remain bid, with any pullbacks viewed as buying opportunities within a structurally tighter supply environment.
Technical Analysis
Brent crude has executed a decisive technical breakout, surging above its long-term downtrend trajectory following a significant breach of the critical pivotal level at $71.90. This level previously served as strong resistance and has now been converted to support, marking a structural shift in the commodity’s price dynamics.
The immediate technical focus is the next resistance line at $86.15. A sustained move above this threshold would open a clear path for Brent to challenge its highest level in three years, with the 2024 highs near $92–$93 emerging as the next significant objective.
Momentum indicators strongly support the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index has penetrated overbought territory, reflecting robust buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence continues to edge higher with positive divergence, confirming that upside momentum remains firmly entrenched .
Resistance Levels: 93.45, 99.65
Support Levels: 78.00, 71.90
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