Tariff Shock, ISM Data & U.S. Jobs Report in Focus

The Week Ahead: Week of March 2, 2026 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
The new week begins with markets digesting the announcement of a 15% U.S. tariff introduced late last week, a development that has revived trade-war dynamics and reintroduced upside risks to inflation expectations. Investors will be assessing whether the policy shift signals a broader protectionist pivot and how it may influence supply chains, pricing power, and global growth momentum.

Early-week manufacturing data will be closely scrutinized for any immediate signs of cost pressures. With tariff risks resurfacing, price components within PMI surveys may take on added importance as markets evaluate whether input inflation could reaccelerate.

Midweek focus shifts toward services activity and labor market indicators, culminating in Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Given heightened sensitivity to inflation, wage growth will carry particular weight. A firm labor market combined with tariff-driven price pressures could complicate rate-cut expectations, while softer data may refocus attention on economic moderation.

Overall, volatility may remain elevated across FX, rates, and commodities as markets balance inflation risks against potential trade-related growth headwinds.

Key Events to Watch:

Monday, March 2 – 17:45

U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Previous: 52.4 | Forecast: 51.2 | Actual: N/A

The final February manufacturing reading will provide insight into business conditions before the tariff announcement’s full impact is felt. Particular attention will be paid to new orders and input prices. Strength in activity could reinforce growth resilience, while rising price pressures may fuel inflation concerns. A weaker reading would raise questions about industrial momentum heading into Q1.

Monday, March 2 – 18:00

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Previous: 52.6 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

ISM data will be closely watched for confirmation of expansion above the 50 threshold. Markets will focus on the prices-paid component given renewed tariff-related cost risks. A stronger-than-expected print could support the dollar and yields, while signs of slowing demand may weigh on risk sentiment.

Tuesday, March 3 – 13:00

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Feb)

Previous: 1.7% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Eurozone inflation will be critical for ECB policy expectations. A stable or softer reading would reinforce the disinflation narrative and support expectations for accommodative policy. An upside surprise could challenge dovish pricing and lift European yields, particularly if energy or core components show renewed firmness.

Tuesday, March 3 – 13:00

UK Spring Forecast Statement

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The UK government’s fiscal update may influence sterling and gilt markets. Investors will assess growth projections, borrowing estimates, and any fiscal adjustments that could alter the medium-term economic outlook. Expansionary measures could support near-term growth expectations, while tighter fiscal guidance may reinforce caution around domestic demand.

Wednesday, March 4 – 04:30

China Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Previous: 49.3 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

China’s PMI will provide an early read on regional manufacturing momentum. A move back above 50 would signal stabilization, potentially supporting commodity-linked currencies. Continued contraction could reinforce concerns about external demand and global trade flows, especially amid new tariff developments.

Wednesday, March 4 – 16:15

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)

Previous: 22K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

ADP serves as a preliminary signal ahead of Friday’s official payrolls data. A solid rebound in private hiring would suggest labor demand remains resilient despite policy uncertainty. A weak reading could increase caution heading into the main labor market release.

Wednesday, March 4 – 17:45

U.S. S&P Global Services PMI (Feb)

Previous: 52.7 | Forecast: 52.3 | Actual: N/A

Services activity remains the primary driver of U.S. growth. Sustained expansion would support the broader economic outlook, while strength in input and output prices could amplify inflation concerns. A downside surprise may signal moderating domestic demand.

Wednesday, March 4 – 18:00

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Previous: 53.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The services sector remains the backbone of U.S. economic activity. Continued expansion would reinforce growth stability, while strength in the prices component could amplify inflation worries. A downside surprise may renew concerns about broader economic cooling.

Wednesday, March 4 – 18:30

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Previous: 15.989M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Oil inventory data may influence energy prices and near-term inflation expectations. A large drawdown could support crude prices and add upward pressure to inflation-sensitive assets. A surprise build may weigh on oil and reinforce disinflation narratives.

Thursday, March 5 – 16:30

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Weekly claims will offer a timely snapshot of labor market conditions. Stability would signal that employment remains orderly. An unexpected rise could hint at softening momentum and temper rate expectations.

Friday, March 6 – 15:30

U.S. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

Previous: 0.0% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Retail sales will provide a direct measure of consumer spending strength at the start of the year. A rebound would signal resilient demand and support growth expectations. Weak consumption data may increase concerns that tighter conditions are weighing on households.

Friday, March 6 – 16:30

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

Previous: 130K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The February payrolls report will be the week’s defining event. Strong job creation would reinforce labor market resilience and could support the dollar, particularly if accompanied by firm wage growth. A softer outcome would raise questions about momentum entering Q2 and potentially support a more dovish repricing in rates markets.

Friday, March 6 – 16:30

U.S. Unemployment Rate (Feb)

Previous: 4.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The unemployment rate will help determine whether labor market slack is emerging. Stability would indicate balanced conditions, while an unexpected increase could amplify growth concerns. A decline would reinforce tight labor dynamics.

Friday, March 6 – 16:30

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb)

Previous: 0.4% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Wage growth remains a critical inflation input, particularly in a tariff-sensitive environment. Persistent earnings strength could keep inflation expectations elevated and delay policy easing expectations. A softer print would help ease concerns over sticky services inflation.