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Oil Supported by US–Iran Tensions While Tariff Risks Cap Broader Market Sentiment

Published: 24 February 2026,06:57

Daily Market Analysis New

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Key Takeaways:

*Oil prices rise on renewed geopolitical tensions ahead of talks between the United States and Iran

*Strike warnings from Donald Trump increase fears of supply disruption

*Diplomatic negotiations expected in Geneva with mediation signals from Oman

*However, tariff threats and weaker global growth outlook limit upside in commodities and risk assets

Market Summary:

Crude oil prices moved higher as investors remained cautious ahead of a new round of nuclear-related talks between the United States and Iran, with markets increasingly concerned that a breakdown in negotiations could trigger renewed sanctions and tighten global supply. Discussions are scheduled to take place in Geneva, with Tehran signaling it still prefers a diplomatic resolution, while warning it would respond firmly if Washington resorts to military action.

Geopolitical risk intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering a limited strike should Iran fail to reach an agreement. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei warned that any U.S. attack would be treated as an act of aggression, raising fears that tensions could escalate and disrupt energy exports from one of OPEC’s key producers. Mediators from Oman have indicated the talks carry a “positive push” toward a potential deal, although confirmation from Washington on the next negotiation round remains pending.

Despite the geopolitical premium, oil’s upside remains capped by broader macro concerns. Markets are weighing the potential economic impact of renewed U.S. tariff measures on major trading partners, which could weaken global growth prospects and dampen future energy demand, limiting the sustainability of the recent price gains.

Technical Analysis

CL-Oil, H4:

Crude oil prices are trading higher but remain in consolidation between resistance at 67.15 and support at 65.95. Momentum indicators are leaning slightly bullish, with MACD showing diminishing bearish momentum while RSI at 62 holds above the midline and signals improving upside bias.

Traders are closely watching the 67.15 resistance for a potential breakout. A sustained move above this level could allow prices to extend gains toward the next resistance at 68.35, confirming bullish continuation.

However, if bullish momentum fails to strengthen, crude oil may pull back to re-test support at 65.95, with 64.50 acting as the next downside level should selling pressure increase.

Resistance Levels: 67.15, 68.35

Support Levels: 65.95, 64.50

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