Published: 16 February 2026,01:51
Chart The Market
Dow Jones, H4:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains structurally constructive on the chart, but momentum is beginning to compress as price consolidates beneath upper retracement resistance. After advancing steadily along the rising trendline that has defined the medium-term uptrend, the index is now trading just below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 50,260. This area has acted as a near-term ceiling, with recent candles reflecting hesitation rather than expansion as buyers struggle to generate sustained follow-through.The broader structure continues to favor higher lows, with the ascending trendline and the 0.236 retracement near 48,570 reinforcing a well-defined support zone. Each corrective pullback into this region has been absorbed, maintaining the integrity of the bullish sequence. However, the pace of upside progress has moderated. While price remains elevated within the upper half of the range, it has yet to demonstrate the impulsive strength needed to reclaim the 0.382 level decisively and target the 0.50 retracement near 51,625.
Momentum indicators reflect this maturing advance. RSI is holding around the mid-50s after recently fading from higher levels, signaling that bullish momentum remains present but is no longer accelerating. The subtle downward slope in RSI suggests internal cooling rather than outright reversal. Meanwhile, MACD has begun to roll over from a recent upswing, with the histogram contracting and the signal lines converging. This indicates waning upside momentum and the potential for a short-term consolidation phase.
Resistance Levels: 50,260.00, 51,625.00
Support Levels: 48,580.00, 47,220.00
USDCAD, H4
USDCAD on the chart remains structurally heavy, though short-term recovery attempts are developing within a broader descending framework. Price continues to respect the dominant descending trendline that has capped rallies since the late-January high. The recent bounce from the 1.3500 region near the 0% swing low produced a sharp impulsive recovery, but upside progress has stalled beneath the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement around 1.3630. This zone now acts as immediate resistance, reinforced by the confluence of the descending trendline overhead.
Momentum indicators suggest improving but not dominant bullish pressure. RSI has recovered into the mid-50s after rebounding from oversold territory, signaling a shift from bearish momentum to neutral-bullish conditions. However, it has yet to break into strong bullish territory above 60–65, indicating limited conviction. MACD has crossed higher and the histogram has turned positive, confirming short-term bullish momentum, though the slope is beginning to flatten showing a potential early sign of consolidation beneath resistance.
Overall, USDCAD is in a corrective rebound within a larger bearish structure. The next directional move will likely be dictated by how price reacts to the descending trendline and the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance cluster overhead.
Resistance Levels: 1.3630, 1.3665
Support Levels: 1.3600, 1.3580
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