Published: 11 February 2026,05:55
Daily Market Analysis New
*The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as weakening consumption data signals slowing growth and undermines near-term GDP expectations.
*Political rhetoric framing a weaker dollar as “natural” has reduced policy resistance to further USD depreciation.
Market Summary:
The U.S. dollar is under broad structural pressure, largely because recent economic data is showing signs of slowing growth while markets increasingly price in future interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Retail sales in the U.S. were unexpectedly flat in December, with core expenditures which exclude volatile items like autos actually falling, signaling weaker consumer momentum than expected and increasing speculation that economic growth is losing steam. This weaker turnout for consumption that is a key driver of GDP has dampened confidence in the U.S. economy’s immediate strength and bolstered expectations for Fed easing later in 2026.
Adding to the dollar’s softness was a public comment from the U.S. Commerce Secretary that the current weaker dollar is at a “more natural” level for supporting exports and growth, a framing that markets interpret as tacit support for lower dollar valuation. Meanwhile, the dollar recently hit a four-year low, reflecting broader concerns including tariff uncertainty, weaker consumer demand, political volatility around economic policy, and mounting fiscal deficits that all of which have eroded the traditional confidence premium the greenback has enjoyed as the world’s reserve currency.
Market positioning supports this narrative that Treasury yields have slid, with 10-year yields near multi-week lows as traders bet on Fed rate cuts. A weaker jobs outlook and cooling wages compound this dynamic, making the outlook for the dollar more bearish in the shorter term. Cross-currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY have responded, with the dollar trading near one-week lows against the euro and slipping against the yen amid stronger Japanese economic indicators and geopolitical calm.
All eyes are now on today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, which was delayed and is being closely watched as the next major catalyst for direction. Given the recent softness in retail sales, cooling wage pressures, and signs of labor market moderation, the risk skews toward a weaker-than-expected NFP print. If payroll growth comes in below expectations and unemployment ticks higher, it would likely accelerate rate-cut pricing, push Treasury yields lower, and extend downside pressure on the dollar. Conversely, if NFP surprises to the upside with resilient job creation and firm wage growth, markets may be forced to unwind some dovish positioning, triggering a short-term dollar rebound and a repricing of Fed expectations.
In this context, the dollar’s path is increasingly influenced by policy expectations rather than hard data strength, as weaker U.S. metrics push up rate-cut pricing and political rhetoric tolerating dollar weakness reinforces that view. Today’s labor data therefore carries outsized importance: a soft print would validate the bearish structural narrative, while a strong surprise could temporarily stabilize the greenback but may not fully reverse the broader trend unless accompanied by sustained economic resilience in subsequent data releases.
Technical Analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure after failing to reclaim the 98.00 resistance zone, reinforcing the broader corrective structure that has been in place since late January. Following the sharp breakdown from the upper range, DXY staged a rebound attempt toward former support, but the move stalled and rolled over, signaling that upside momentum remains fragile.
Momentum indicators align with this cautious outlook. RSI remains suppressed below the 40 level, indicating persistent bearish momentum rather than a neutral consolidation. While there has been a modest uptick from recent lows, the indicator has yet to reclaim its midline, highlighting the absence of meaningful buying strength. MACD remains negative, with the signal lines below zero and the histogram failing to show convincing upside expansion, suggesting that downside pressure has eased but not reversed.
Resistance Levels: 98.00, 99.60
Support Levels: 96.70, 95.40
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
