Inflation and Consumption Take Focus as U.S. Labor Data Is Delayed

The Week Ahead: Week of February 9, 2026 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
Markets enter the week with a notable adjustment to the macro calendar, as key U.S. labor indicators including Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings have been pushed back to next Wednesday. As a result, immediate focus shifts toward inflation and consumption data to guide expectations around growth momentum and the Fed’s policy trajectory.

U.S. retail sales and CPI will take center stage, offering insight into whether consumer demand remains resilient and whether disinflation progress is continuing into early 2026. In the UK, a full set of GDP readings will help assess whether growth stabilized into year-end or continues to lag amid restrictive financial conditions. While this week’s data may shape near-term positioning, markets remain acutely aware that the delayed labor report could still redefine sentiment and volatility in the following week.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, February 10 – 16:30

U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)

Previous: Headline 0.6% | Core 0.5% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Retail sales will be a key early-week indicator of consumer demand following the holiday period. Strong headline and core readings would suggest households remain resilient despite tighter financial conditions, supporting growth expectations and risk assets. A weaker outcome would raise concerns that higher interest rates are beginning to weigh more heavily on consumption, potentially pressuring equities and the dollar while supporting bonds.

Wednesday, February 11 – 16:30

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

Previous: 50K | Forecast: 68K | Actual: N/A

The delayed payrolls release still represents the most important labor signal for markets. Hiring strength would suggest that labor demand remains resilient despite restrictive policy, potentially supporting the dollar and weighing on rate-cut expectations. A weak report would confirm labor market cooling and could drive a dovish repricing across rates and FX.

Wednesday, February 11 – 16:30

U.S. Unemployment Rate (Jan)

Previous: 4.4% | Forecast: 4.4% | Actual: N/A

The unemployment rate will offer a broader view of labor market slack. Stability would indicate balanced conditions, while an unexpected increase could reinforce concerns that labor market softening is accelerating. A lower rate would complicate the disinflation narrative by signaling persistent tightness.

Wednesday, February 11 – 16:30

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)

Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: 0.3% | Actual: N/A

Although the broader labor report has been delayed, wage growth remains a critical inflation input. Persistent earnings strength would raise concerns over sticky services inflation, potentially keeping Fed easing expectations in check. A softer print would reinforce confidence that wage-driven inflation pressures are easing into early 2026.

Wednesday, February 11 – 18:30

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Previous: –3.455M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Oil inventory data may influence energy prices and near-term inflation expectations. A large drawdown could support crude prices and add upward pressure to inflation-sensitive assets, while a surprise build may weigh on oil and reinforce disinflation narratives.

Wednesday, February 11 – 21:00

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Auction

Previous Yield: 4.173% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The auction will be closely watched for signs of demand amid ongoing concerns about fiscal supply and rate expectations. Weak demand could push yields higher and pressure equities, while strong participation may help stabilize bond markets and ease financial conditions.

Thursday, February 12 – 10:00

UK GDP (YoY, QoQ Q4 & MoM Dec) – Preliminary

Previous: YoY 1.3% | QoQ 0.1% | MoM 0.3%

Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The combined GDP release will offer a comprehensive view of UK economic momentum. The quarterly and annual figures will shape medium-term growth expectations, while the monthly print provides a more timely snapshot of activity heading into 2026. Stronger growth would support GBP and reduce pressure on the BoE to ease policy, while weaker readings could revive concerns about stagnation and weigh on sterling.

Thursday, February 12 – 16:30

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Weekly claims data serves as a high-frequency indicator of labor market conditions. A sustained rise in claims could signal accelerating labor market softening, reinforcing dovish policy expectations. Stable claims would support the view that employment conditions remain orderly.

Thursday, February 12 – 18:00

U.S. Existing Home Sales (Jan)

Previous: 4.35M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Housing market data will be monitored for signs of stabilization after prolonged pressure from elevated mortgage rates. A rebound in sales would suggest improving affordability and demand, while continued weakness may highlight ongoing stress in interest-rate-sensitive sectors.

Friday, February 13 – 16:30

U.S. CPI: Headline and Core (YoY & MoM) (Jan)

Previous:

• CPI YoY 2.7% | MoM 0.3%

• Core CPI MoM 0.2% 

Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Friday’s CPI release is the most important inflation event of the week. Markets will assess both monthly momentum and annual trends to determine whether disinflation is progressing as expected. A hotter-than-expected print, particularly in core inflation, could push yields higher and reinforce “higher-for-longer” policy expectations. Softer inflation readings would support risk assets and strengthen expectations for policy easing later in the year.