Gold & Silver Volatility: NFP Delays and Key Data Ahead

The Week Ahead: Week of January 26, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
Precious metals remained volatile as gold and silver rebounded modestly after a sharp two-session selloff that pushed prices below key psychological levels near $4,400. The decline followed the surprise nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, shifting expectations toward a more hawkish stance focused on balance sheet tightening rather than rapid rate cuts. Higher margin requirements from CME Group also accelerated liquidation. Despite the pullback, ongoing risk-off sentiment and broader macro uncertainty continue to support safe-haven demand, keeping metals supported on dips.

The US dollar strengthened on rising expectations of a more hawkish Fed, while renewed optimism over a US–India trade deal supported sentiment toward US growth. However, lingering concerns over government stability and uncertainty around upcoming labor data, including Nonfarm Payrolls after the federal shutdown, continue to limit broader confidence. As a result, the dollar is likely to remain sensitive to both policy signals and key macro releases.

Oil prices stabilized after recovering part of recent losses, supported by expectations that India may reduce Russian crude purchases under evolving US trade arrangements. Elevated geopolitical risk also underpinned crude oil, including reports of a US interception of an Iranian drone near the USS Abraham Lincoln and shifts in Iran nuclear talks. These developments reinforced supply-side uncertainty, keeping crude prices headline-driven and supported by geopolitical risk premiums.

Key Events to Watch:

18:00 EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan)
Previous: 1.9% | Forecast: 1.7% | Actual: N/A
Eurozone inflation will influence ECB policy expectations. With the euro recently under pressure amid global risk-off sentiment, a softer-than-expected CPI may reinforce dovish ECB expectations and weigh on EUR, while an upside surprise could support the currency and add pressure on gold as investors rotate from safe havens.

21:15 USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)
Previous: 41K | Forecast: 46K | Actual: N/A
ADP employment offers an early read on US labor market strength. A stronger print may bolster the USD, which has recently recovered after hawkish Fed signals, and could pressure gold and silver. Weaker-than-expected growth could weigh on the dollar, supporting safe-haven demand.

22:00 USD – JOLTS Job Openings (Dec)
Previous: 7.146M | Forecast: 7.230M | Actual: N/A
A rise in openings would signal continued labor tightness, reinforcing hawkish Fed expectations and potentially supporting USD. Conversely, a decline could ease rate-hike concerns, benefiting gold and other risk-off assets.

22:45 USD – S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)
Previous: 52.5 | Forecast: 52.5 | Actual: N/A
Services sector activity remains a gauge for US economic momentum. A stronger reading could reinforce USD strength and risk-on sentiment, while weakness may underpin gold as a safe haven amid growth concerns.

23:00 USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
Previous: 54.4 | Forecast: 53.5 | Actual: N/A
A lower-than-expected print may support safe-haven demand, while stronger growth reinforces the USD’s recent gains following hawkish Fed positioning.

23:30 USD – Crude Oil Inventories
Previous: N/A | Forecast: –2.295M | Actual: N/A
Inventory draws could support oil prices, which recently stabilized amid Middle East supply concerns. Higher oil may lift commodity-linked currencies but could pressure risk sentiment if geopolitical tensions escalate.

Thursday, February 5, 2026

20:00 GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
Previous: 3.75% | Forecast: 3.75% | Actual: N/A
BoE guidance will influence GBP amid dollar strength and ongoing risk-off sentiment. Hawkish signals could pressure gold further, while dovish commentary may shift flows back into safe havens.

21:15 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
Previous: 2.15% | Forecast: 2.15% | Actual: N/A
Markets will watch for changes in tone on inflation and growth. A hawkish signal could support EUR, while dovish guidance may pressure the currency.

21:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: 209K | Forecast: 213K | Actual: N/A
Labor market signals could influence Fed expectations. Rising claims may trigger dovish repricing, benefiting gold, while stable readings reinforce USD strength and limit risk-on appetite.

Friday, February 6, 2026

21:30 USD – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: 0.3% | Actual: N/A
Earnings growth indicates wage pressures and potential inflation. Stronger-than-expected data may boost USD, while weaker prints could ease rate hike concerns.

21:30 USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
Previous: 50K | Forecast: 67K | Actual: N/A
The headline labor market report remains a key driver for USD and risk sentiment. Higher-than-expected payrolls support economic resilience; weaker numbers may trigger dovish Fed repricing.

21:30 USD – Unemployment Rate (Jan)
Previous: 4.4% | Forecast: 4.4% | Actual: N/A
Reflects labor market health. Any deviation could shift expectations for Fed policy and influence USD and equity markets.