Published: 4 February 2026,06:16
Chart The Market
BTC, D1:
Bitcoin has sustained a sharp and severe decline, now approaching a critical pivotal support level near $76,180. This represents a drawdown of approximately 40% from the October peak, a magnitude that historically coincides with major technical inflection points. The interaction with this level is pivotal; a successful defense and subsequent consolidation here could provide the foundation for a strong technical rebound, offering the first sign of seller exhaustion after the prolonged downturn.
However, momentum indicators present a conflicting narrative that tempers immediate bullish expectations. The Relative Strength Index has entered deeply oversold territory, which can precede a bounce, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has crossed bearishly below its zero line and exhibits negative divergence. This configuration suggests that while the price may be oversold, the underlying bearish momentum remains potent and may continue to exert downward pressure, opposing a simple trend reversal thesis based solely on price support.
Bitcoin is at a high-stakes technical crossroads. The confluence of a 40% correction and a major historical support level creates a high-probability zone for a significant market reaction—either a robust rebound or a catastrophic breakdown. The oversold RSI supports the case for a bounce or consolidation, but the bearish MACD warns that any recovery may be temporary within a still-dominant downtrend. The most likely near-term scenario is volatile consolidation or a technical bounce at support, but a sustained bullish reversal would require a decisive recovery above the $84,000 resistance to invalidate the current bearish momentum structure.
Resistance Levels: 84,080.00, 92,680.00
Support Levels: 61,875.00, 52,460.00
USDJPY, H4
The USDJPY pair has executed a technically significant move, decisively breaking above and filling the price gap created during a prior sharp decline. This action suggests a structural shift, indicating the sell-off has been fully retraced and a bullish trend reversal is underway, establishing a new near-term positive bias for the pair.
This constructive price action is reinforced by strengthening momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index is advancing toward overbought territory, reflecting building buying pressure. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has completed a bullish crossover above its zero line and exhibits positive divergence, confirming that bullish momentum is not only present but is accelerating.
The technical outlook has turned bullish following the confirmed gap closure and breakout. The convergence of this price structure with robust momentum signals establishes a credible foundation for further gains. The immediate focus is a test of resistance near 158.00. A successful break above this level would likely extend the rally. While the RSI nearing overbought levels may precede near-term consolidation, the primary trend direction is now higher. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a reversal back below the newly established support from the gap fill, which would indicate a false breakout.
Resistance Levels: 157.68, 159.40
Support Levels: 154.65, 153.05
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