Published: 25 December 2025,05:39
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Gold remained firm near all-time highs during Christmas, underpinned by declining U.S. yields, a softer dollar, and persistent macro uncertainty.
*Despite improved risk appetite and strong equity performance, investors retain defensive gold positions, reflecting its role as both a hedge against policy risk and a portfolio stabiliser.
*Expectations of continued Federal Reserve dovishness in 2026, coupled with easing real yields, remain central drivers of gold demand.
Market Summary:
Gold prices remained firm near record levels during Christmas trading, supported by a confluence of declining U.S. yields, a softer dollar, and persistent macro uncertainty. While risk appetite has improved into year-end clearly reflected in strong equity performance as investors have shown little urgency to reduce defensive exposure, highlighting gold’s dual role as both a hedge against policy risk and a portfolio stabiliser late in the cycle.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a dovish bias into 2026 have been a central driver, particularly as real yields have eased and inflation expectations remain contained. These dynamics continue to underpin demand for non-yielding assets, even as outright risk aversion has moderated. In parallel, ongoing central bank purchases and long-term diversification flows have provided a steady underlying bid, insulating prices from short-term sentiment swings.
Geopolitically, tentative signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have softened immediate haven demand, but the absence of definitive confirmation has kept precautionary positioning intact. Broader concerns around global trade fragmentation, energy security, and political uncertainty across major economies also remain embedded in investor psychology.
With U.S. macro data largely priced in and Christmas limiting participation, gold trading has been driven more by positioning adjustments than fresh information. Looking ahead, the metal’s trajectory will remain closely tied to real yields and Fed communication, though structural support suggests downside may remain limited barring a sharp repricing of rate expectations.
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) has maintained a constructive medium-term technical structure on the chart, following a decisive breakout from its prior consolidation range earlier in December. After spending several weeks building a base above the 4,180–4,230 zone, price accelerated higher, confirming a bullish continuation phase supported by rising moving averages and expanding momentum.
Structurally, gold remains well supported above its short-term moving averages, which are positively aligned and rising, signaling sustained bullish control. The recent sideways-to-slightly corrective price action appears more consistent with a consolidation or digestion phase rather than a trend reversal, especially as pullbacks remain shallow and contained above former resistance-turned-support.
Momentum indicators largely support this constructive outlook. The RSI is holding above the 60 level, reflecting strong bullish momentum, though it has eased slightly from overbought conditions. This suggests that upside momentum is cooling but not breaking down as a typical characteristic of consolidation within an ongoing uptrend. Meanwhile, the MACD remains above the zero line, with positive histogram readings, indicating that bullish momentum is still dominant despite minor short-term deceleration.
Resistance Levels: 4500.00, 4560.00
Support Levels: 4450.00, 4415.00
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