Published: 22 December 2025,01:44
Daily Market Analysis New
*Geopolitical risks have re-entered the oil market, with intensified U.S. enforcement against sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers injecting short-term supply uncertainty and supporting prices during recent sessions.
*The underlying supply picture remains heavy, as elevated U.S. output, rising inventories, and the gradual unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary cuts continue to weigh on medium-term price expectations.
Market Summary:
Crude oil prices face a mixed fundamental backdrop heading into the final weeks of 2025, as geopolitical risk premiums clash with persistent oversupply pressures. Recent U.S. actions targeting Venezuelan oil tankers have added uncertainty to supply expectations. Over the weekend, the U.S. Coast Guard intercepted multiple sanctioned tankers linked to Iran and Venezuela, part of a blockade that could curb Venezuelan exports, a modest but strategically relevant portion of global supply. These developments lifted early Asia-session prices, with WTI crude reaching around $56.86 per barrel, as heightened maritime risk and geopolitical tension were repriced into oil futures, providing intermittent support to an otherwise fragile market.
However, the broader outlook remains skewed toward soft demand and excess supply. U.S. inventories continue to build, while domestic production stays elevated. Non-OPEC output and the gradual unwind of OPEC+ voluntary cuts sustain a supply overhang, keeping prices near multi-year lows. Global demand growth is faltering, particularly in China and Europe, as slowing manufacturing and energy consumption weigh on sentiment. Ample refined product inventories and declining gasoline prices reinforce the bearish tone.
Macro conditions also influence oil fundamentals. Softer U.S. inflation data and rising unemployment have strengthened expectations for Fed rate cuts, affecting real yields and commodity flows. A weaker dollar could support crude, but oversupply and fragile risk appetite limit upside. Slower global growth and muted industrial activity continue to pressure structural demand.
Looking ahead, oil’s near-term direction will hinge on the balance between geopolitical risk premiums and changes in supply and demand. Sustained sanctions that disrupt crude flows could keep risk premiums elevated, while ongoing demand weakness and rising inventories may reassert the bearish trend. Prices are likely to remain range-bound until clearer signals emerge from demand data, central bank policy, and producer commitments on supply restraint.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil prices remain under pressure on the chart, with price action continuing to respect a broader descending structure following repeated failures near the 60.00 resistance level. After breaking down from the rising channel in early December, USOIL has extended its decline and is now attempting to stabilize above the 56.30–56.80 support area, which has acted as a short-term demand zone in recent sessions.
Momentum indicators are showing early signs of stabilization but have yet to confirm a trend reversal. The RSI has rebounded toward the mid-50s after recovering from oversold territory, indicating improving short-term momentum, though it remains below bullish thresholds. Meanwhile, the MACD has crossed higher with a positive histogram print, suggesting diminishing bearish momentum, but the signal remains fragile as long as price stays below key resistance.Overall, USOIL maintains a cautious bearish-to-neutral outlook on the chart.
Resistance Levels: 58.30, 60.00
Support Levels: 56.30, 53.80
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
