29 October 2025,05:14
Daily Market Analysis New
29 October 2025, 05:14
Key Takeaways:
*Oil prices retreat after a sharp rally driven by Russia-related supply risks.
*OPEC+ expected to raise output by 137,000 bpd in December, extending its gradual production recovery.
*U.S.–China trade developments remain a key risk factor for global demand sentiment.
Market Summary:
Crude oil prices retraced slightly this week after an aggressive surge earlier in the month, as investors digested a combination of bullish and bearish catalysts shaping the near-term outlook. The initial rally was fueled by tightening U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, raising fears of potential supply disruptions across key export routes. However, as the geopolitical risk premium eased and market fundamentals normalized, prices began to consolidate and edge lower.
According to Bloomberg, the OPEC+ alliance is expected to discuss a third consecutive monthly production hike of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December at its upcoming meeting. This move aligns with market consensus and reflects OPEC+’s broader plan to gradually unwind earlier output cuts totaling 2.2 million bpd introduced in early 2024. Notably, OPEC’s September crude production rose by roughly 400,000 bpd to 29.05 million bpd, marking its highest level in over two years — a development that has tempered bullish momentum in the market.
On the demand side, sentiment remains fragile as U.S.–China trade relations continue to inject volatility into global growth expectations. Any negative developments in bilateral discussions could dampen the economic outlook and, by extension, weaken energy consumption forecasts. Meanwhile, speculation about future Federal Reserve rate cuts could influence risk sentiment and dollar movement, indirectly affecting oil pricing dynamics.
Looking ahead, traders are expected to focus on OPEC+ policy guidance, U.S. inventory data, and macroeconomic updates from major consuming economies to assess whether the recent pullback represents a short-term correction or a potential shift in trend.
Technical Analysis
Crude oil prices are trading lower, currently testing the support level at 60.10. The MACD shows strengthening bearish momentum, while the RSI at 45 remains below the neutral zone, suggesting a continuation of downside pressure. A confirmed break below 60.10 would open the path toward 58.30, while sustained weakness could bring the red MA line into focus as the next downside target.
Conversely, if selling momentum fades, oil could rebound toward the yellow MA line, with near-term resistance levels located at 61.90 and 63.35.
Resistance Levels: 61.90, 63.35
Support Levels: 60.10, 58.30
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