U.S. GDP, Core PCE, and German CPI to Test Market Nerves in Final Week of August

The Week Ahead: Week of August 25, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

The final week of August offers a dense mix of U.S. and European data, with several releases holding the potential to shift market sentiment. Monday starts quietly with a UK bank holiday, but U.S. new home sales will give an early read on housing demand amid elevated borrowing costs.

On Tuesday, attention turns to U.S. durable goods orders and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index—key barometers of household and business momentum. Midweek, the focus shifts to oil markets with inventory updates, while India’s Ganesh Chaturthi holiday may keep Asian liquidity thin.

Thursday brings one of the week’s highlights: the second-quarter U.S. GDP release. After Q1’s contraction, investors will watch closely to see if growth rebounded strongly in Q2. Weekly jobless claims alongside it will provide a timely check on labor market resilience.

Friday rounds off with a heavy slate: German CPI for August, plus the U.S. Core PCE Price Index—both the Fed’s favored inflation gauge and a potential policy driver ahead of September’s FOMC. The Chicago PMI will close the week, giving insight into regional manufacturing momentum.

With inflation, growth, and consumer demand all in focus, this week could set the tone as markets transition from summer trading into September’s heavier policy calendar.

Key Events to Watch:

Monday, August 25 – 17:00
US New Home Sales (Jul)
Previous: 627K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The housing market remains under pressure from high mortgage rates and elevated prices, with sales trending lower in recent months. A weak July reading would underscore affordability challenges and slowing demand, while a surprise rebound could suggest underlying resilience. Markets will watch closely for implications on consumer spending and the broader growth outlook.

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Tuesday, August 26 – 15:30
US Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jul)
Previous: -9.4% | Forecast: -4.0% | Actual: N/A
Durable goods orders plunged in June, driven by volatility in transportation and softer business investment. July’s rebound is expected to be modest, and a stronger-than-forecast recovery would signal renewed capital spending momentum. Conversely, another sharp drop could stoke concerns that firms are cutting back amid tighter financing conditions.

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Tuesday, August 26 – 17:00
US CB Consumer Confidence (Aug)
Previous: 97.2 | Forecast: 98.0 | Actual: N/A
Consumer sentiment has softened recently as households face persistent inflation pressures and signs of labor market cooling. A rebound in August would suggest resilience in spending power, while a further decline could reinforce fears that consumption that the backbone of U.S. growth is losing momentum.

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Wednesday, August 27 – 17:30
US Crude Oil Inventories
Previous: -6.014M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Crude stockpiles posted a sharp draw last week, highlighting tighter supply conditions. Another large decline would support oil prices and inflation concerns, while a surprise build could indicate softening demand, potentially easing energy-driven price pressures.

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Thursday, August 28 – 15:30
US GDP QoQ (Q2, Second Estimate)
Previous: -0.5% | Forecast: 3.0% | Actual: N/A
After contracting in Q1, the U.S. economy is expected to show a strong rebound in Q2, led by consumer spending and government outlays. A solid print would ease recession worries and backstop the dollar, while a weaker result could reignite speculation about a slowing economy and earlier Fed cuts.

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Thursday, August 28 – 15:30
US Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: 235K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Jobless claims remain one of the most timely indicators of labor market health. Any notable rise would point to cooling employment conditions and strengthen expectations of Fed easing, while persistently low levels would suggest continued resilience, complicating the dovish case.

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Friday, August 29 – 15:00
German CPI MoM (Aug, Prelim)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: 0.3% | Actual: N/A
German inflation is projected to remain steady, but services and food costs remain sticky. A softer print would reinforce expectations of ECB rate cuts later this year, while an upside surprise could slow the path toward policy easing and offer temporary euro support.

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Friday, August 29 – 15:30
US Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jul)
Previous: 2.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is closely watched for signs of disinflation momentum. If core PCE remains elevated, it may push back expectations for rate cuts, supporting the dollar. A softer reading would bolster the case for easing as soon as September.

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Friday, August 29 – 15:30
US Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jul)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: 0.3% | Actual: N/A
On a monthly basis, core PCE is expected to hold steady. Any deviation from expectations will carry outsized impact for near-term Fed policy bets, with markets especially sensitive to signs of stickier inflation.

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Friday, August 29 – 16:45
US Chicago PMI (Aug)
Previous: 47.1 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Regional manufacturing conditions remain in contraction territory, reflecting pressure from weak demand and high costs. A rebound above 50 would signal stabilization in industrial activity, while continued weakness would highlight ongoing strain in the sector.